EnergyNow Morning Oil Price Report

Report Date & Time: October 6, 2026 – 8:42 a.m. MDT – Using Trading View Prices

See Up-To-Date Prices Here

Summary

• WTI crude is approximately US$87.60 per barrel, down US$1.83, or 2.05%, from Monday’s official settlement of US$89.43. Oil has weakened significantly since the earlier morning report as improving Middle East exports reduce immediate concerns about a global crude shortage.
• Brent crude is approximately US$98.62 per barrel, down US$1.70, or 1.69%, from Monday’s official US$100.32 settlement. Brent has now fallen decisively below the psychologically important US$100 level.
• The primary bearish forces are recovering Gulf exports, Saudi Arabia’s restored East-West Pipeline capacity and the G7’s planned 100-million-barrel emergency crude-and-diesel release. Continuing attacks in the Middle East are preventing an even larger selloff.

Latest Oil Prices

As of approximately 8:42 a.m. MDT Tuesday, WTI was trading near US$87.60 per barrel, compared with Monday’s $89.43 settlement. That represents a decline of US$1.83, or 2.05%, making today’s move clearly lower. Reuters reported the $87.60 level at 1013 GMT as Tuesday’s selloff accelerated.

Brent was approximately US$98.62 per barrel, down US$1.70, or 1.69%, from Monday’s $100.32 settlement.

That represents a significant change from the earlier morning report: WTI has moved from around $89 to below $88, while Brent has broken below $100.

There is no material contract-roll distortion in today’s comparison. WTI remains on the November contract and Brent on December 2026. Each is being compared with Monday’s settlement for the corresponding contract.

The Brent-WTI premium is approximately US$11.02 per barrel.

Why Oil Is Moving

The market is becoming increasingly convinced that Middle East crude availability is improving faster than previously expected.

Gulf oil flows excluding Iran recovered to more than 81% of pre-war levels during September, according to Vortexa data reported by Reuters. More importantly, crude and condensate exports recovered to approximately 91% of pre-war levels.

Saudi Arabia has been central to the recovery. Saudi crude exports climbed by approximately 4.2 million barrels per day between August and September, reaching about 6.6 million bpd.

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman also said the kingdom’s East-West Pipeline is now carrying approximately 5.8 million barrels per day, restoring an important alternative route that allows Saudi crude to reach the Red Sea without passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Adding further pressure, Saudi Arabia has reduced its November official selling price for Arab Light crude to Asian customers — another signal of improving availability. Reuters

Key Market Risks or Catalysts

The other major bearish factor is the G7 emergency-stock release.

G7 countries agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from emergency inventories while pledging not to impose energy-export restrictions. That decision provides the market with another near-term supply cushion. Reuters

But significant upside risks remain.

Saudi airports at Jazan and Najran were attacked Monday, injuring three people, while fighting between Saudi-backed Yemeni forces and the Houthis continues. Saudi-backed forces have also advanced around the strategically important Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The refined-product market also remains much tighter than the crude market. Gulf refined-fuel exports were only about 60% of pre-war levels in September, helping maintain shortages of diesel and jet fuel.

That distinction is becoming increasingly important: the world currently appears to have a bigger refined-product and logistics problem than an outright crude-oil shortage.

Bottom Line

Oil has weakened substantially since early Tuesday morning.

WTI is now around $87.60 and Brent around $98.62, putting both benchmarks roughly 2% below Monday’s settlements.

Recovering Gulf exports, restored Saudi pipeline capacity and the G7 emergency release are convincing traders that immediate crude availability is improving.

For producers, including those in Canada, the concern is that continued normalization of Gulf exports could put additional downward pressure on crude prices. However, geopolitical risk remains exceptionally high, meaning another attack on major energy infrastructure or shipping could quickly reverse today’s decline.

Western Canadian Select (WCS)

The latest reliable synchronized WCS physical-market assessment remains Monday, October 5. WCS for November delivery at Hardisty settled at a US$24.80-per-barrel discount to WTI, according to Calgary brokerage CalRock.

Monday’s comparable WTI settlement was US$89.43, implying an outright WCS value of approximately US$64.63 per barrel.

On Friday, the WCS differential was US$24.65 per barrel. The discount therefore widened by US$0.15 per barrel, from $24.65 to $24.80. The differential has reached levels not seen since 2023.

The widening has been attributed to record global tanker freight costs, strong Canadian oil sands production, limited spare capacity on Canadian export pipelines and increased Venezuelan heavy-crude imports into the U.S. Gulf Coast.

There is an important timing distinction. Monday’s $64.63 WCS price, $89.43 WTI reference and $24.80 differential are synchronized closing values. Tuesday’s WCS physical-market settlement has not yet been established. Therefore, Tuesday morning’s approximately $87.60 WTI futures price should not be combined with Monday’s WCS value to create an artificial current WCS differential.

Who Watches the WCS Price

Oil sands producers realize WCS-linked prices on unhedged production, and their capital plans key off the differential outlook. US Midwest and Gulf Coast refiners with coking capacity buy WCS as feedstock and treat the differential as their margin opportunity. The Alberta government forecasts royalty and tax revenue directly off WCS — a one-dollar move in the differential is worth hundreds of millions of dollars to the provincial budget over a fiscal year. And diluent demand links WCS volumes back to condensate markets.

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