COMMENTARY: How Will Trump’s Venezuela Deal Affect Alberta? – Yogi Schulz

 

By Yogi Schulz

Even discounting President Trump’s penchant for hyperbolic exaggeration, the US deal for access to Venezuelan crude oil reserves has sufficient scope to cause everyone interested in Alberta’s oil export outlook to take notice. Let’s take a closer look.

President Trump’s Truth Social post about the Venezuela deal

BIGGEST OIL DEAL IN WORLD HISTORY! At my direction, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, working closely with Highly Respected Interim President of Venezuela, Delcy Rodriguez, and, through a partnership with private business, have secured majority U.S. control of more than 65 BILLION BARRELS of proven Oil Reserves in Venezuela, at no cost to the American Taxpayer. This Historic Transaction MORE THAN DOUBLES American Oil Reserves, greatly increases our Oil Supply, and will substantially lower Gas Prices for all Americans, long into the future, while helping to continue to set Venezuela on a course toward Tremendous Success and Great Prosperity. This Transaction will greatly strengthen the already growing relationship between Venezuela and the United States! Thank you for your attention to this groundbreaking matter.

Analysis of key phrases in Trump’s Truth Social post

Trump’s Venezuela deal may be the latest example of his hyperbolic exaggeration nd tendency toward misrepresentation. Consider the truthfulness of these phrases from his post:

1. “Highly Respected Interim President of Venezuela, Delcy Rodriguez.” Complete mischaracterization. Delcy Rodriguez is the unelected dictator who rules Venezuela with a core group of autocrats.
2. “partnership with private business.” True. The U.S. government will own a 35% passive stake in Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt’s North American Blue Energy Partners.
3. “majority U.S. control.” False. A 35% passive stake is not control.
4. “U.S. control.” False. Together with “no cost to the American Taxpayer,” the U.S. is a minority partner that will have little or no say in developing the crude oil reserves.
5. “American Oil Reserves.” This phrase is complete nonsense. No country includes reserves located in another country in its reserves estimates.
6. “substantially lower Gas Prices for all Americans.” Wild exaggeration. Such a decrease may occur several years down the road, once producers have started producing significant volumes of Venezuelan crude oil.
7. “lower Gas Prices . . . long into the future.” No one can predict gasoline prices long into the future. Lower gasoline prices are more likely to depend on restoring routine traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and Ukraine ceasing its successful campaign to destroy Russian refining capacity.
8. “set Venezuela on a course toward Tremendous Success and Great Prosperity.” We all hope this outcome will occur for the Venezuelan people. However, it depends on huge governance improvements in a country that has been poorly ruled for a long time. It also depends on producers willing to develop the crude oil resources listed in the deal. That will take years and billions of dollars. And it depends on producers perceiving the political risk as low enough to invest.

Immediate impact on Alberta crude oil exports

The deal between North American Blue Energy Partners and the U.S. government with the Venezuelan government will not immediately impact Alberta crude oil exports.

Alberta crude oil prices are strong. The differential between Western Canadian Select (WCS) crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has hovered around an all-time low of $10/barrel in 2026. The strength is due to increased capacity from TMX for crude oil exports, which began in the summer of 2025.

Short-term impact on Alberta crude oil exports

The following trends may soon undermine the strength of Alberta crude oil prices:

1. TMX recently reported its first month of operating at full capacity. As Alberta production continues to grow, supply will exceed pipeline capacity, prices will soften, and the differential will increase again.
2. Venezuelan crude oil exports will continue their shift from China to the U.S. This shift started with the U.S. naval blockade of Venezuela in late 2025, as shown in the chart below. This shift reduces demand for Alberta crude oil from U.S. refineries.

Source: Trump and Venezuelan Oil: 65 Billion Barrels on Paper. Almost None in the Tank.

Longer-term impact on Alberta crude oil exports

If Venezuelan crude oil exports begin to increase in a few years, Alberta will be impacted because both producing regions offer the same medium and heavy crudes that various U.S. refineries are designed to process.

However, it’s unclear whether major oil and natural gas producers will agree to invest the capital required to develop Venezuelan resources because:

1. It’s unclear whether the deal, which is set to last for 25 years, will last beyond President Trump’s term in office.
2. Further political upheaval in Venezuela may terminate all oil resource development, deal or no deal.
3. Producers have been forced to take major write-downs of previous investments when the Venezuelan government expropriated assets and will be reluctant to invest again.
4. The global crude oil price forecast suggests lower prices due to additional supply from Canada, Guyana and the UAE.
5. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the war in Iran will end in the near future. That will increase crude oil supply, depress prices and reduce interest in investing in Venezuela.

Conclusion

President Trump’s deal increases the likelihood of oil production development in Venezuela. The deal, regardless of implementation risks, will increase competition in Alberta’s traditional U.S. market. That event reinforces Canada’s need to diversify its crude oil export markets. The most obvious and immediate proposal to advance diversification is to build another pipeline to the West Coast, since the market opportunity is in Asia.

For another perspective on these developments, please read: Trump’s Massive Venezuela Oil Gambit is Also Another Massive Wake-Up Call for Canadian Energy, EnergyNow Media, August 28, 2026

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