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Those assuming that things will magically become better for Canada if, as expected, the Democrats recapture the House of Representatives in the midterm elections should think again.
The Democrats are protectionists on trade and on many issues, are opposed to Canadian interests.
One prominent example is the ongoing eight-year campaign of Michigan Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to shut down Enbridge’s Line 5 pipeline, which crosses the U.S.-Canada international border, and whose closure would have devastating economic consequences for Canada.
Line 5 is a non-partisan issue in Canada, with the federal, Ontario, Alberta, Quebec and Saskatchewan governments united in their support of the 1,038-km pipeline, running from Wisconsin to Sarnia.
It carries 540,000 barrels of crude oil and natural gas liquids, daily.
Half of the oil supplied to Ontario and Quebec and half of the propane supplied to Michigan would be cut off if Line 5 is shut down.
Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ohio and Pennsylvania would be adversely impacted because of how the transportation and refining of oil and natural gas liquids are interconnected.
Gasoline prices would rise in Ontario and Quebec, as would propane prices in Michigan, presumably, because of reduced supply.
Toronto’s Pearson Airport and Detroit’s Metropolitan Airport would face jet fuel shortages.
Tens of thousands of direct and indirect jobs would be lost on both sides of the border, with Sarnia hardest hit in Canada.
Because the need for oil and natural gas liquids would continue, pipeline supporters argue, up to 800 railway tank cars and 2,000 trucks per day would be required to transport them if Line 5 is scrapped.
That would mean new dangers to the public because of the risks of derailments and highway accidents, plus increased air pollution and greenhouse gases.
Whitmer and Democratic state officials have been trying to shut down Line 5 through multiple legal avenues and court cases for years.
Because of the delays this has caused, the Trudeau government in 2021 and again in 2022 invoked a 1977 treaty between Canada and the U.S. intended to ensure “the uninterrupted transmission of hydrocarbons” (liquid fuels) between our two countries.
The feds argued “the economic and energy disruption and damage to Canada and the U.S. from a Line 5 shutdown would be widespread and significant … Canada is also worried about the domino effects the shutdown would have on the jobs of thousand of Canadians.”
While that triggered mandatory federal government-to- government consultations on the issue, it hasn’t resolved the impasse.
Pipeline opponents, including Michigan Democrats and U.S. indigenous and environmental groups, scored a major victory last week when a 6-1 decision by the Democratic-dominated Michigan Supreme Court threw the future of Line 5 into further doubt.
Key to the dispute is a 7.2-km stretch of the 73-year-old pipeline which is anchored underwater at the bottom of the Straits of Mackinac, connecting Lake Michigan and Lake Huron.
To address concerns raised by Whitmer and other pipeline opponents that a rupture in the pipeline would cause an environmental disaster, Enbridge proposed constructing a $500-million concrete-lined tunnel in 2018 ($750 million today and heading toward $1 billion), safely burying a replacement pipe deep beneath the bed of the Straits of Mackinac.
The Michigan Public Service Commission granted a permit to build the tunnel in 2023 but last week the Michigan Supreme Court ordered state regulators to reconsider the awarding of the permit based on a more intensive review of environmental concerns and a re-examination of the commission’s arguments in granting the permit.
The court also reaffirmed an earlier judicial ruling that Line 5 trespasses on tribal land.
The continuing legal battle over Line 5 in Michigan is one reason Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Ontario Premier Doug Ford last month proposed a 3,000-km Northern Shield Energy Corridor from Hardisty, Alta. to Sarnia.
It initially would transport 500,000 barrels of oil per day, and up to 800,000 potentially, eliminating the need for Line 5 and U.S. control over Canadian energy security by Michigan’s attempts to scuttle it.
The problem is such a solution would take years to turn into a reality.
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COMMENTARY – GOLDSTEIN: Get Real Canada, When it Comes to Energy Issues, the Democrats Are Not Our friends