COMMENTARY: Canadian Energy Superpower Aspirations- Achievable or Pretentious?

 

By Maureen McCall

“Canada has a tremendous opportunity to be the world’s leading energy superpower, in both clean and conventional energy.” Prime Minister Mark Carney, April 2025.

Canada’s Potential as an Energy Superpower

Energy superpower …a lofty goal for Canada. But is it no more than a political slogan, a rallying cry to hook voter support from patriots to businessmen to workers alike?

Can Canada really become a greater energy provider to the world, let alone a “superpower”?  The answer to this question is certainly to be addressed this fall at Canada’s first-ever Investment Summit, scheduled for mid-September 2026. The summit intends to attract capital for “nation-building” energy, infrastructure, and critical minerals projects to expand Canada’s role as a global energy supplier.

Questions surrounding energy superpower aspirations were addressed at the Canadian Energy Executives Association’s CEEA 75 event in Banff this summer. The talking points from a panel of Industry leaders Alex Pourbaix, Board Chair at Cenovus Energy, Ron Gusek, CEO at Liberty Energy, Chana Martineau, CEO of the Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation, and Brian Hamm, President & CEO at McDaniel, are important to review before the upcoming Investment Summit.

The discussion focused on Canada’s potential to become an energy superpower, with Brian Hamm highlighting Canada’s oil production growth from 2.5 million to 5.5 million barrels per day over 20 years. He referenced Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s challenge to industry at the conference to grow Canada’s production to 8 million barrels per day by 2035.

Government Policies and Regulatory Reforms

The panel emphasized the need for regulatory reform, particularly the repeal of nine uncompetitive regulations, to attract investment.

Alex Pourbaix discussed his involvement with Cenovus and the Pathways deal, expressing cautious optimism about the federal government’s new approach to the energy sector.

“It is really refreshing to see the federal government have a change of heart regarding the energy sector. I would also say that it has been really refreshing to see that the global events in the last couple of years have finally driven home the importance of oil and gas to the global economy and energy security. Energy security is national security, and it’s economic security. Although we’re always going to continue to fight the naysayers in our industry, it is great to see some of the realities hit home for Canadians. There is a great opportunity in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) to add production.”

Pourbaix also highlighted the importance of the need for regulatory reform to attract investors and reduce costs for the energy industry, saying, “We have great resources, but we are not a low-cost basin, and we have to be very, very cautious about regulations or policy that adds cost to this industry without any benefit.”

There was general agreement amongst the panel that there are still several federal regulations that bring no discernible value to Canadians, but add cost, add uncertainty and add risk to the industry. There was acknowledgement that the government has come forth with Bill C-5 in an attempt to ameliorate some of its regulations, but more regulatory reform is essential if the energy industry is going to continue to attract investors, especially investors outside of Canada. They emphasized the need for long-term trust and certainty in policy to encourage investment in Canada’s energy sector.

Comparative Analysis with the United States

Panellist Ron Gusek spoke of his experience working in businesses in Canada and the U.S., and now that he runs a business that operates on both sides of the border. He noted he has had the opportunity to witness the growing differentiation between what he saw happen in the United States versus what he saw happen in Canada over that same 20-year time frame mentioned earlier. He said it is good to celebrate what Canada has accomplished in that time, especially given the headwinds that Canada has dealt with.

“If you look at the numbers for the United States over the last 15 years, you had the United States grow oil production by 140 percent versus about 80 percent in Canada. You had the United States blow past our (natural)gas production by 90 percent versus about 30 percent in Canada. The United States has eight LNG export terminals and six approved under construction and another four waiting on FID. In the same time frame, Canada has…? So it’s been a real frustration for me as a Canadian to sit on the south side of the border and watch what has not transpired up here, given the amazing opportunity. Capital goes where it’s welcome and stays where it is well treated”, and unfortunately, capital has not been welcome in Canada for the last decade. It has not been treated well over that time frame, and it’s chosen to go elsewhere.”

Why add to regulations that increase cost and increase risk & uncertainty

While Gusek said it was “exciting” that the Major Projects Office exists, his concern is that it implies a need for a way to “get around” the regulatory environment that exists. It implies a need to circumvent regulations that are still in place and still represent a challenge for business. To Gusek, the right approach should be that the major projects office isn’t needed because the regulatory framework would evolve to a place where Canada provides certainty that proponents could engineer and ultimately deploy capital for a major project and know that it was going to go ahead. The panel recognized the need for Canada to improve its regulatory environment to attract capital and investment, making it a stable and competitive framework to support the energy industry. The nine regulations that need to be repealed were mentioned, including the Northern Tanker Ban, the Clean Fuels Act, the Clean Electricity Act, the Impact Assessment Act, the greenwashing regulations under the Competition Act, etc. – what Premier Danielle Smith has referred to as “the Nine Bad Laws affecting the Energy Sector”. Panellists did agree that if Canada is able to attract investment, there is the potential for significant economic benefits and job creation through increased oil production. However, with significant job creation comes the challenges of managing labour shortages and the need for a long-term plan to address urgent workforce needs.

Indigenous Involvement in the Energy Sector

Indigenous involvement in the energy sector was praised, with $1.5 billion invested through loan guarantees, with Chana Martineau highlighting the role of Indigenous communities in the energy sector, mentioning the Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation’s support for nine transactions worth $745 million. She also suggested that with the profits stemming from Indigenous ownership, communities could support training an Indigenous workforce to aid industry workforce demands.

Someone tell Ottawa – Buyers want the cheapest barrels

The Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) – Pathways Project agreement was discussed, including the economic challenges of the Pathways deal, noting the high costs and limited benefits of carbon capture and sequestration. Panellists emphasized the need for a compromise to balance environmental goals with economic realities. The potential for the Pathways deal to improve Canada’s global competitiveness and reduce emissions was also discussed. An audience member brought up an interesting point about the current market that saw 2 million barrels of oil taken out of the market in the last six months as a result of the Strait of Hormuz disruption. They suggested the carbon footprint of the oil that’s being produced is no longer of concern to buyers- that price is the only determining factor.

Something to keep in mind at the Canada Investment Summit next month in Toronto.

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Maureen McCall is an energy professional who writes on issues affecting the energy industry

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