Slow Down, Baby, Slow Down: US Permian Basin’s Oil Output Growth to Slow in 2025 Despite Trump’s Plan, Executives Say

At a conference in Houston, they said production is expected to rise in 2025 by about 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 300,000 bpd from the shale formation spread across Texas and New Mexico, down from last year’s 380,000-bpd increase.

That forecast aligns with the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s projection of a 300,000-bpd rise. Total Permian output hit 6.3 million bpd last year, accounting for about half of total U.S. output.

“We still expect to see growth in the Permian but we expect to see that moderated versus the rate of growth we have seen before,” Barbara Harrison, vice president of crude supply and trading at Chevron told Reuters on the sidelines of the conference.

Chevron’s Permian production grew 14% year-over-year, the company reported in its Q4 earnings, to a record 992,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), bringing the company close to its 1 million-boepd target.

“We are predicting closer to 9-10% over the next couple of years, continuing to grow our production there but not necessarily at the same rate that we have done in the past,” Harrison said.

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said he believes Permian operators will keep capital spending modest and grow within their means, unlike the 2010s shale boom when their focus was to pump more.

“Drill, baby, drill is not going to happen,” Shannon Flowers, director of crude and water marketing at Coterra Energy said on the sidelines of the Argus Global Crude Summit in Houston.

“The tension that we have right now is that the Trump administration said it wants lower energy prices. That’s not necessarily good for producers,” Flowers added.

U.S. refiner Delek’s CEO Avigal Soreq concurred.

Producers are focusing on keeping capital spending under control and achieving higher prices for their oil and gas. They have prioritized returning cash to shareholders after a pricing rout in the last decade hurt profits and share prices.

While the U.S. is already the world’s top oil producer with output of about 13.2 million bpd in 2024, total U.S. production growth has slowed in recent years, climbing only about 280,000 bpd last year.

(Reporting by Georgina McCartney, Arathy Somasekhar, Sheila Dang in Houston; Editing Cynthia Osterman and Marguerita Choy)