What’s Next for the Strait of Hormuz?

Even with flows gradually improving, EIR modeling shows OECD inventories bottoming at multi-decade lows and a lasting geopolitical premium in Brent

CALGARY, Alberta (June 10, 2026) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading energy data analytics platform, has published its latest report, Strait of Hormuz | What Comes Next for Oil Markets?

In its latest outlook, EIR argues that the market’s focus on diplomacy risks underestimating the inventory damage already incurred from the Strait of Hormuz disruption. EIR’s balance modeling shows OECD crude and product stocks drawing sharply through 2026, with inventories falling from 2.82 Bbbl at year-end 2025 to a 2.36 Bbbl trough in Q4 2026—an outcome EIR characterizes as an unprecedented 20-year low.

In EIR’s base case, Brent averages $110/bbl in H2, peaks near $117/bbl in Q4, and does not fall below $100/bbl until 3Q27, with year-end 2027 settling only in the mid-$90s as flows normalize and the rebuild begins.

“The key takeaway in our modeling is that the inventory ‘stock hole’ can outlast the headline. Even if diplomacy advances, OECD stocks are projected to bottom at levels that historically correlate with stronger prices. Furthermore, we think the crisis likely leaves behind a more durable geopolitical premium that doesn’t fully get unpriced,” said report author and EIR director Al Salazar.

Key takeaways:

• OECD inventory trough: OECD crude and product stocks fall from 2.82 Bbbl (YE25) to a 2.36 Bbbl trough in Q4 2026.
• Base-case price path: Brent averages $110/bbl in H2, peaks near $117/bbl in Q4, and does not fall below $100/bbl until 3Q27 in the base case.
• ​​​​Embedded premium risk: A $5–$10/bbl geopolitical risk premium is considered likely to become embedded in oil prices following the closure precedent.
• Delay sensitivity: Each additional month of disruption adds roughly $10–$15/bbl to the H2 Brent average in the sensitivity framework.

EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus ONE.

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