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May 25, 2026 – A long-simmering “what if” has become a reality in Alberta, with federalists and separatists now on a five-month clock to convince Albertans to either stay in Canada or “start a legal process” for a binding referendum on separation. The UCP government led by Premier Danielle Smith will put a 37-word question to Albertans in an Oct. 19 referendum.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds most Albertans would vote against proceeding with the separation process — 60% would vote No to the official October question, compared to 35% who would vote Yes. When asked a simpler hypothetical — leave or stay — the federalist position strengthens, with 67% opting to stay and 30% choosing to leave. Half (51%) find the official question confusing, and 56% say Premier Smith has handled the issue poorly.
- 61% would vote No on the official October question — Alberta stays in Canada
- 67% would choose to Stay in a simpler hypothetical leave/stay question
- 56% say Premier Smith has handled the separation issue poorly
Three-in-five would vote No — but UCP voters back starting the process 64-30, and rural Alberta is split
“Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”
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