Price Gap Surge from Trans Mountain Expansion Highlights Need for New Pipelines: MEI

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A new report says Canada’s ability to sell oil in markets outside of the United States has paid off big time so far, underscoring the urgent need for more pipelines to coastal waters.

Public policy think tank MEI says the average price-gap between light U.S. and heavy Alberta crude blends narrowed by 37.5 per cent between the 18-month leadup to the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion’s completion in 2024 and the 18 months that followed.

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It says that resulted in a US$16.7-billion boost to industry revenues between June 2024 and November 2025, filtering through to Alberta government coffers in the form of royalties.

Before the Trans Mountain expansion started up, non-U. S. Canadian oil exports made up only three per cent of the total, but that proportion grew to 14 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The report comes as the Alberta government prepares a regulatory application for a new oil pipeline to the northern British Columbia coast that would enable up to one million barrels of oilsands crude to be exported to Asia.

A sweeping energy accord signed between the Alberta and federal governments late last year set out conditions that would see such a project move ahead, though no private-sector firm has stepped forward to take the reins.

Those in favour of the idea have argued recent geopolitical instability, like the war engulfing much of the Middle East in recent weeks, makes it all the more important for Canada to send its oil and gas to global markets.

But others have argued the upheaval highlights the need to get off fossil fuels all-together.

“The current conflicts have revealed the inherent vulnerability of relying on oil and gas,” Keith Stewart, senior strategist at Greenpeace Canada, said earlier this week.

“Oil importing nations are accelerating the transition to renewable energy because they are now cheaper than fossil fuels and you can’t blockade the wind or the sun. A greener world is a safer and more affordable world.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 26, 2026.

Lauren Krugel, The Canadian Press