CANADA DESERVES ENERGY CLARITY – Trudeau’s “No Pipeline” Bill Has Simply Been Replaced by Carney’s “Maybe a Pipeline” Bill – Jim Warren

By Jim Warren

I wonder if many supporters of the conventional energy sector in Alberta are embarrassed about having to go cap in hand to Ottawa for permission to expand oil production and seagoing exports. Maybe they’re more angry than embarrassed.

Since the 2025 federal election Mark Carney has claimed to support nation building economic development. However, when it comes to dismantling the restrictions on getting new pipelines built the only concession of consequence he has made to the gas and petroleum sectors is Bill C-5. And the actual significance of that concession remains unclear.

Jason Kenney might well refer to Bill C-5 as the “Maybe a Pipeline” bill.

Optimism ensued after the Calgary Stampede Pancake Breakfast when Carney told reporters he would support a proposal under Bill C-5 for a new oil pipeline extending from Alberta to tidewater. You really can’t blame people for welcoming what could be a pipeline lifeline. After all, Albertans have fought Ottawa for 10 long years without receiving a single meaningful concession for the energy sector.

Unfortunately ifs and buts won’t build a pipeline.

A pipeline could be approved, if Alberta’s oil producers make a monumental investment in capturing their domestic CO2 emissions. It could be approved provided somebody other than Ottawa assembles the resources and commitments required to develop and support a Bill C-5 proposal. And let’s not forget, a pipeline to the East coast could be approved only if Quebec allows it.

This past spring Quebec Premier François Legault hinted he was giving pipelines another look. Frightened by the potential impact of US tariffs, a majority of people in Quebec were warming to the idea of a new oil pipeline crossing their provincial territory. As of May 2025, Legault was prepared to consider it. Perhaps he got to thinking Quebec might want to build a few pipelines to tap into its own undeveloped oil and gas reserves.

Nevertheless, the irritating reality is that if Quebecers say no, Mark Carney has promised they will have a veto over an Energy East 2.0.

And, what about David Eby’s NDP government in BC? The BC NDP have been competing with the Greens for decades over who loves the environment the most. That being said, some observers suggest Eby has become less hostile to a Northern Gateway 2.0 than he was in the past. However, given Carney’s promise of a veto for Quebec, BC’s world-class tree huggers and whale savers can be expected to demand the same treatment.

I admit being sucked into the desperate practice of micro-parsing every public statement made by Mark Carney; hoping one of his word salads actually contained good news. It is no simple task. As Danielle Smith deftly noted, Mark Carney speaks in riddles. I’ve read Bill C-5 but remain puzzled. I still see a big problem with getting a supposedly approved project actually built under it.

I’d be thrilled to be proven wrong on this count, but I haven’t found convincing evidence to the contrary.

Take the case of the TMX. Despite being approved and purchased by the Liberal government the project was plagued by expensive delays. The pipeline fell victim to an avalanche of protests, lawsuits, and court injunctions. Minor adjustments to the route of the right of way had to be run through a whole new approval gauntlet. It seemed like environmental monitors would halt construction if it threatened a puddle containing a few tadpoles or if a non-human bone fragment was discovered.

Impediments to construction post-approval were in large part responsible for the $38 billion in cost overruns chalked up by the project. Unless approval under Bill C-5 promises to immunize projects from the same sort of frustrations that plagued the TMX, who would want to take the risk?

An Indigenous youth group in Ontario has already announced a protest campaign aimed at thwarting Doug Ford’s plans for developing the mineral rich Ring of Fire.

Unlike Albertans who are left wondering about the future of their most significant industry, Quebecers have been doing just fine under the Carney Liberals. As mentioned, they have been promised a veto over new oil pipelines. And more recently the federal government passed Bill C-202, guaranteeing that the supply management program for dairy and poultry farmers cannot be used as a bargaining chip in Canada’s international trade negotiations.

The Liberal government has conceded that both Quebec’s 4,300 dairy farmers and their 350,000 cows are sacred. Supply management ensures Quebec’s dairy farmers can’t lose money without trying very hard to do so. On the other hand, despite the longstanding complaints of Westerners over major irritants like Quebec’s annual $13 billion equalization windfall have not made it onto the Liberals nation building agenda. Chalk up another win for La Belle Province.

It is not like political leaders on the prairies haven’t been pushing back.

Danielle Smith has taken a cover-all-the-bases approach. One of her tactics has been to exercise the degree of diplomatic finesse required to maximize the concessions she can wring out of Ottawa; short of separation.

Smith has also made it clear her government expects resolution of many of the West’s longstanding problems with Confederation like equalization and the emissions cap. Smith’s government has also given the people of Alberta the opportunity to air their concerns about the state of the Canadian union by facilitating a separation referendum. What more could a premier who wants her province to remain in Confederation do?

Compared to Alberta, Saskatchewan is a junior player when it comes to oil production, although the 2 billion in royalties (2023 figures) it earns annually from oil is nothing to sneeze at; especially for a province with just 1.2 million people. Nevertheless, Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government has taken a unique approach to resisting Ottawa’s assault on fossil fuel.

Saskatchewan relies on coal-fired power plants for around 40% of its electricity. It lacks the water resources suitable for significantly expanding hydro production. The province’s natural gas fields are nearly exhausted. And greater reliance on solar and wind is not feasible given the need to maintain base load service in a province subject to serious climate extremes. The province’s long-term aim is to eventually replace coal-fired power generation with nuclear power, but that will require time and investments in the tens of billions.

So what to do in the interim, given that Ottawa has ruled all coal-fired electrical power generation in Canada must end by 2030?  The solution announced by Jeremy Harrison, minister responsible  for SaskPower, Saskatchewan’s  Crown-owned power utility, was to tell Ottawa to get stuffed.

The province will continue to make use of its ample coal resources. It will extend the life span of its generating stations until the transition to nuclear is well underway; which could be a couple decades or more down the road. It is a position that pleases the Town of Coronach and the City of Estevan along with the thousand plus people employed thanks to coal mining and the power plants.

Nothing embarrassing about that.

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