In their February 2025 paper “The Troubled Energy Transition, How to Find a Pragmatic Path Forward”, Daniel Yergin, Peter Orszag, and Atul Arya examined the progress of the energy transition away from a hydrocarbon-dominated energy mix to a low-carbon one and the corresponding, prescribed net-zero emissions targets. They found that the world is far from on track to achieve the often stated target of reaching, by 2050, “net-zero emissions”. Contrary to IEA 2021 projections, which prescribed that for the world to meet 2050 targets, greenhouse gas emissions would need to decline from 33.9 gigatons in 2020 to 21.2 gigatons in 2030, the authors found:

“The world is far from on track to achieve the often stated target of reaching, by 2050, ‘net-zero emissions’—a balance in which any residual emissions are offset by removals of emissions from the atmosphere. And there is no clear plan for getting on track or for delivering the magnitude of investment that would be required to do so.”

The authors further stated that “thus far, emissions have gone in the other direction, reaching 37.4 gigatons in 2023 (and there’s no reason to think that a 40 percent decline in just seven years will be remotely feasible)” and advised a rethink of key assumptions “grappling with the geopolitical, economic, political, and material tradeoffs and constraints rather than wishing them away.”

They reach an important conclusion, that the transition process “will unfold over a long period and that continuing investment in conventional energy will be a necessary part of the energy transition”.

The Canadian energy industry has been grappling with tradeoffs and constraints since its inception in an environment that some, like Alex Fulthorpe, President at Blackstone Industrial Services, liken to “the Wild Frontier.” North Americans in general and Albertans in particular have a special appreciation of frontiers and wilderness, rooted in history. Fulthorpe says that living close to the edges of wilderness, the frontiers, knowing that vast resources and opportunities lie just beyond, is a defining part of the North American experience. More importantly, he argues that this abundance is the foundation of our concept of wealth and the driving force behind our confidence to achieve, build, and lead.

At his spring mentorship session at the Calgary Petroleum Club, Fulthorpe spoke of the effect of the shifting Overton window- a collection of ideas or approaches that are deemed within a certain spectrum or window of acceptability. Although the Overton window is generally used in reference to politics, it has definite relevance in the energy industry. Certainly, the Overton window on topics of renewables, net zero and “sustainable finance” seems to be shifting in light of the threat of tariffs, scandals related to misuse and diversion of subsidy funds, as well as dwindling investment interest in companies that seem overly dependent on subsidies to survive.

At several 2025 energy industry events, Fulthorpe has spoken about the similarity of energy industry challenges to the wild frontier, quoting Aldo Leopold, ecologist and conservationist, saying, “Wilderness is the raw materials out of which man has hammered the artifact called civilization”.

Fulthorpe has been chairing the Canadian Energy Executives Association(CEEA) events in 2024-2025, a not-for-profit association that promotes industry advocacy, networking and community giving. While championing energy, he equally champions the preservation of wilderness.

“The loss of real wilderness and or our connection to it as a grounding force will lead to a destruction of culture,” Fulthorpe says. “To preserve the wild means to preserve our values. Canada’s wild births a rich basket of natural resources. The balanced taming of those resources has shaped our identity-from furs to fossil fuels. It is our culture to be attached to the resources of this land. Canada is home to 900 communities that are economically reliant on at least one of the resource sectors. Energy minerals and forestry are critical to this country and every city and home that is within it. To deny that is to deny our reality.”

Fulthorpe asserts that Canadian resources aren’t just important to our economic prosperity but are also important to the grounding of traditional Canadian core values and culture. He sees that more than ever, Canada has a role to play on the global stage as well as in the stewardship of our resources to create health and prosperity for its nation.

Mohd Jukris Abdul Wahab, the executive vice-president and chief executive officer of upstream business with Petronas, agrees with Fulthorpe’s vision. On August 11^th, he announced that the company is very keen to expand its presence in Canada, as Canada is now one of its major liquefied natural gas (LNG) suppliers. Declaring that Petronas has about 50 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas in Canada, and since the current LNG Canada project is only in Phase 1, Petronas has launched a series of LNG projects backed by its Canadian resource portfolio.

However, Fulthorpe does acknowledge that Canada has an identity crisis and may have lost some of the core values on which the country was established.

“If we do not rally around the fact that we are a resource-based economy, we will continue to devalue the true assets we have,” Fulthorpe says. “The balance sheet of the country is acutely tied to the culture of us being proud of our resources. Of course, we have enough, we just need the will to build as the stewards before us did.”

To reinvigorate confidence in Canada’s resource economy, Fulthorpe has invited an impressive roster of speakers to the upcoming CEEA74 Energy Business Forum in Banff on August 21^st. Speakers include Rick Perry, the 14th United States Secretary of Energy in the first Trump administration, Michael Davies, Pres. and CEO of Trans Mountain, David Kaposi, EVP Investment at Ontario Power Generation, John P. Dielwart, Chairman of the Board of Transalta, as well as Alberta Premier Danielle Smith. The panel discussions and interactions of the speakers and executives at the event will yield many ideas for directions for the Canadian energy industry.

Fulthorpe intends the interactions to include the many young professionals attending the event, saying:

“Current talks explore the complicated nature of balancing prosperity, security and sustainability. Canada and the world need our resources; it will be the challenging task of the next generation of leaders to innovate and defend our wilderness, its wealth, and our core values as a proud resource country. Trading partners and major global shifts are realigning to focus on the security of energy and critical infrastructure.”

A wild frontier indeed!

Maureen McCall is an energy professional who writes on issues affecting the energy industry.