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By Jim Warren
It’s as if Mark Carney was channeling Justin Trudeau on June 23 when he said, “Canada is the most European of non-European countries.”
The National Post’s, Chris Selley, has reported Carney said the same thing at least once before in May while in France. And, Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry, Melanie Joly repeated the claim in a BBC interview.
Given that leading Liberals said the same thing at least three times in the same month, chances are it’s a Carney administration feature and not a bug.
Clearly, the prime minister and Joly should be more careful about which part of the country they’re talking about when assigning the same cultural characteristics to all Canadians. Comments about Canada’s European affinity might be welcomed in Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal, but it’s a mistake to assume people living on the Prairies feel the same way.
Nevertheless, there are some disturbing similarities between Canada and Europe in the field of climate change policy. For instance, both Liberal Ottawa and the governing bodies of the EU share a penchant for enacting impractical one-size-fits-all green transition mandates.
Canada and the EU each contain regions that differ dramatically in their geographic and cultural characteristics. Problems are bound to arise when governments expect the same laws and regulations to apply equally in all regions.
Take, for example, Ottawa’s electric vehicle (EV) mandate. Canada’s auto industry will be compelled to sell Canadians an increasing number of EVs despite their questionable performance in the colder parts of the country like the prairies.
A 2024 study by the Canadian Automobile Association (CAA) suggests the federal Liberals actually knew that EV wintertime performance in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver would be considerably better than would be the case in Edmonton. However, the government didn’t allow those sorts of details to appear on official websites promoting EV adoption. The CAA reported that the government figures for the distance EVs could travel on a fully charged battery used an annual average which essentially hid the significantly lower distance vehicles could travel on a single charge in cold winter weather.
A recent example of one-size fits-all green transition regulations running amok in Europe is the EU mandate for the installation of hydrogen refueling stations. Each EU member country is required to apply the same distribution principles for their hydrogen refueling stations and they must have those stations in place within the next five years.
Under the EU’s 2023 Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation, each EU member country must install at least one hydrogen refueling station every 200 km (124 mi) on major roads and at least one in every urban centre.
A study by researchers from Sweden’s Chalmers University of Technology, published in April 2025, indicates the EU’s distribution pattern was inappropriate for some countries and regions within countries. The study cautioned the system’s flaws would “lead to losses of tens of millions of euros a year in some countries.”
Assigning the same density of refueling stations for the major roads in each country fails to account for traffic volumes and significant differences in geography. For example, “capacity in France needs to be seven times higher in 2050 than what the EU requires by 2030.”
On the other hand, “countries such as Bulgaria, Romania and Greece do not have the same traffic flows and are being forced to build infrastructure that is unlikely to be used to the same extent. This may amount to tens of millions of euros a year in investment and operating costs for unused capacity.”
The fact that some regions of Europe are mountainous and others are relatively flat, means that fuel consumption will be significantly higher on some roads than others. This means some highways will need more stations than others, such as the Alps. You’d think EU bureaucrats in Brussels would have known about the mountains.
The EU is particularly interested in seeing widespread adoption of hydrogen fuel cell power for long-haul commercial trucks. These systems use the electricity produced by hydrogen fuel cells to drive electric motors. Currently there are not all that many hydrogen fuel cell powered trucks globally or in Europe. EU policy makers have assumed the wide adoption of hydrogen fueled trucks can’t happen unless there are enough places for the trucks to refuel. An if you build them, they will come strategy, if you will.
The trouble is the movie that made the expression famous was a fantasy, not a documentary. The rationale for the 2030 installation deadline is based on predictions of the expected rate of adoption for hydrogen-powered vehicles. And those predictions appear to be based on the aspirations of climate concerned environmentalists working for the EU and people who hope to build and market hydrogen fueled vehicles and related products.
The International Energy Agency’s 2022 net-zero emissions scenario predicts “hydrogen fuel will account for approximately 30% of heavy truck energy demand in 2050, mainly for long-distance heavy freight.” (with battery electric power accounting for around 60% [hydrogen fuel cell power accounts for the 40%]).”
Other energy analysts have projections for the actual number of hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks that will be on the road in Europe. Interact Analysis, a statistics aggregator, predicts that the number of units in Europe will increase from 1,500 trucks in 2024 to as high as 45,000 by 2030. Future Market Insights reports that as of 2021 there were only 225 hydrogen fueling stations in all of Europe and half of those were in Germany.
Examples of one-size-fits-all green transition policies based on overly optimistic predictions have plagued both Europe and Canada. They have been costly in terms of financial losses and job losses in the EU and are expected in Canada’s auto sector. The situation is unlikely to improve while political parties, which have bought into the need for excessively ambitions emissions reduction strategies, are in office. In this regard things are more likely to improve in the near future in some European countries than they are for Canada. The increasing success of populist politicians, who are opposed to the high cost of green transition mandates, are putting pressure on governments to reverse onerous environmental mandates.
Note: Tables 1, 2 and 3 provided below show actual and projected hydrogen fuel cell vehicles sales in Europe from 2020-2030; the number of hydrogen refueling stations in China and the EU from 2018 to 2021; and, the value of the hydrogen truck market from 2024-2034.
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Table 1
The Market for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Heavy-Duty Trucks in Europe 2020-2030
| Year | Units delivered | Accumulated units |
| 2024 | 500 | 1,500 |
| 2025 | 1,200 | 2,700 |
| 2026 | 2,000 | 4,700 |
| 2027 | 4,000 | 8,700 |
| 2028 | 4,500 | 13,200 |
| 2029 | 10,000 | 23,200 |
| 2030 | 22,500 | 45,700 |
Source: Derived from Interact Analysis, (Feb., 2023).
In 2030, over 45000 heavy trucks will run on hydrogen in Europe.
https://interactanalysis.com/insight/in-2030-over-45000-heavy-trucks-will-run-on-hydrogen-in-europe/
Table 2
Estimated Number Hydrogen Refueling Stations in China $ Europe 2018-2020
| Year | Number in China | Number in Europe |
| 2018 | 25 | 110 |
| 2019 | 60 | 140 |
| 2020 | 125 | 151 |
| 2021 | 215 | 225 |
Source: Derived from Interact Analysis, (Feb., 2023).
In 2030, over 45000 heavy trucks will run on hydrogen in Europe.
https://interactanalysis.com/insight/in-2030-over-45000-heavy-trucks-will-run-on-hydrogen-in-europe/
Table 3
Global hydrogen truck market size in $billions USD (2024-2034)
| Year | $billions USD | % increase |
| 2024 | 5.03 | 0 |
| 2025 | 7.22 | 44% |
| 2026 | 10.26 | 42% |
| 2027 | 14.87 | 45% |
| 2028 | 21.34 | 44% |
| 2029 | 30.63 | 44% |
| 2030* | 43.96 | 44% |
| 2031 | 63.09 | 44% |
| 2032 | 90.55 | 44% |
| 2033 | 129.95 | 43% |
| 2034 | 186.5 | 44% |
Note: the assumption on which the projections are based are not available and may be insufficient to justify the estimates.
*2030 is the deadline for EU member states to have a hydrogen refueling station every 200km on major roads and at least one in every urban centre. One could reasonably expect the value of hydrogen vehicles in operation to increase at a slightly higher rate as the EU refueling station installation date approaches and for some time after.
Sources: For EU Mandate: Chalmers University of Technology (July 4, 2025). Study finds EU hydrogen station rollout may cause millions in annual losses.
phys.org. https://techxplore.com/news/2025-07-hydrogen-refueling-stations-millions-yearly.html
For Market size data: FMI (Future Market Insights) Hydrogen Truck Market: Hydrogen Truck Market Growth – Trends & Forecast
2024 to 2034.
https://www.futuremarketinsights.com/reports/hydrogen-trucks-market
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