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Is Climate Catastrophe Really 10 Years Away? is a new study that finds the increasingly accepted idea that the world has 10 years to avoid catastrophic climate change is overstated due to the nature of the models that this assertion is largely based on. In fact, real-world data over the last twenty years has demonstrated the main models being used to forecast the future climate have proven inaccurate and unreliable.
Summary
- The dominant narrative behind the promotion of aggressive climate change policies is that humanity is always about 10 years away from either catastrophic climate change, or some greenhouse gas emission “tipping point” at which such change will become inevitable.
- These “10-years to disaster” scenarios, however, are based on speculative computer models driven primarily by conjecture and assumptions of future events, not merely extrapolations from climate trends, and/or greenhouse gas emission trends that has been observed.
- Comparisons with empirically measured data regarding climate change and greenhouse gas concentrations reveals that the computer forecast models which drive the “10-year” narrative significantly over-predict human-caused warming of the Earth’s atmosphere.
- Climate policies based on these 10-year narratives in the past have consistently failed at their stated objectives of either significantly reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, or forestalling expected climate change.
- Longer term, incremental, adaptive control measures are an alternative option that policymakers should consider in the face of repeated “10-year” windows and failed greenhouse gas emission reduction policies.
Author:
Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute
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