Former U.S. President Bill Clinton once talked about building a bridge to the 21st century. If the goal today is to help reduce global emissions in the 21st century, why can’t oil and gas be the foundation for that bridge?

There has been a lot of chatter recently from alarmists at the UN and among hard-core anti-oil and gas activists about a “death knell” for fossil fuels. Nothing could be further from the truth. Oil and gas can and should play a key role in a measured transformation to a low emissions global economy. Below we chart out one viable pathway.

IHS Markit, one of the world’s leading research firms in assessing energy systems and transitions, recently released its updated base case scenario, known as the “Inflections” scenario. The “Inflections” scenario illustrates the most likely pace of change in long-term global energy markets.

Under this base case scenario, “oil and gas will remain a major source of global energy by 2050 ― even as renewables continue to progress as the economic choice for the future. It is the existing scale ― and range of vital applications that are difficult to decarbonize ― that ensures these energy sources remain a critical part of delivering energy and value to a world with nearly two billion more people by 2050,” says IHS.

In the “Inflections” scenario, “governments move strongly on climate change actions, but climate is only on of many priorities ― and politics and budgets are often constraints. Energy transition accelerates — but moves in different ways and at different speeds around the world,” remarks IHS.

Consider primary energy consumption of oil and natural gas globally and among emerging regional economies in Africa, the Asia-Pacific and Latin America that currently require oil and gas to spur economic development, prosperity and jobs. IHS defines primary energy consumption as the direct use of energy that has not been subject to any conversion or transformation process. An example of energy conversation or transformation is gasoline put into our cars, and with the help of electrical energy from a battery, providing mechanical energy.

On a global basis, under the IHS “Inflections” scenario, primary demand for oil declines by just 6 per cent between 2019 and 2050. But primary demand for oil in the emerging regional economies of Africa, the Asia-Pacific and Latin America continues to grow: by 50 per cent in Africa, by 6 per cent in the Asia-Pacific, and 16 per cent in Latin America. In India, primary demand for oil increases by 70 per cent, while in Indonesia it increases by 58 per cent.

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On a global basis, under the IHS “Inflections” scenario, primary demand for natural gas increases by 29 per cent between 2019 and 2050.  But in Africa, the Asia-Pacific, and Latin America, it surges: by 124 per cent in Africa, by 73 per cent in the Asia-Pacific, and by 80 per cent in Latin America. In India, primary demand for natural gas increases by 148 per cent; in China by 127 per cent; while in Indonesia it increases by 70 per cent.

We can also examine final energy consumption of oil and natural gas globally and among emerging regional economies in Africa, the Asia-Pacific and Latin America. IHS defines final energy consumption as energy supplied to final consumers for all energy uses.

On a global basis, under the IHS “Inflections” scenario, final energy consumption of oil increases by 2 per cent between 2019 and 2050.  But final energy consumption of oil in the emerging regional economies of Africa, the Asia-Pacific and Latin America grows even more significantly; by 66 per cent in Africa; by 11 per cent in the Asia-Pacific; and 25 per cent in Latin America. In India, final energy consumption of oil increases by 79 per cent, while in Indonesia it increases by 75 per cent.

On a global basis, under the IHS “Inflections” scenario, final energy consumption of natural gas increases by 25 per cent between 2019 and 2050. But final energy consumption of natural gas in the emerging regional economies of Africa, the Asia-Pacific, and Latin America grow even more significantly; by 55 per cent in Africa; by 89 per cent in the Asia-Pacific; and by 49 per cent in Latin America. In India, final energy consumption of natural gas increases by 255 per cent; in China by 147 per cent; while in Indonesia it increases by 80 per cent.

Clearly, the appetite for oil and natural gas (from both a demand and consumption perspective) to fuel growth and employment in emerging economies does not appear to be abating under the most likely pace of change in long-term global energy markets.

Under the “Inflections” scenario, “through 2050, oil, natural gas, and coal still serve over 60 per cent of the world’s needs. Renewables’ share passes coal to rank third to oil and gas. Electricity use grows across all sectors ― including transport — but oil retains its role as the leading energy source for mobility”, says IHS.

The IHS base case illustrates that there is viable pathway towards reducing global emissions, a measured transformation where oil and gas serves as a bridge to the future.

Rather than sending the death knell for oil and natural gas, hard-core anti-oil and gas activists and alarmists at the UN need to wake up and face the facts. Oil and gas are not going away any time soon and should be an integral part of an orderly transformation to a lower emissions global economy by 2050.

Let’s use oil and gas to build a strong and durable bridge to a low carbon emissions world.