Despite calls for change, Liberals still hold four-point advantage over opposition Conservatives
March 17, 2021 – At a time when a 2021 election seems likely, and as CPC leader Erin O’Toole continues his so far unsuccessful attempt to break through with the electorate, Conservatives will gather this week for their party’s policy convention.
They will do so knowing half of Canadians express a desire for a change in government, yet show little want for an election before fall, and still give the incumbent Liberals a slight edge in vote intention.
According to the latest data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute, half of Canadians (49%) say it’s time to switch governing parties in Ottawa, led almost entirely by past Conservative voters (88% say this), and at least one-in-three past NDP (39%), Green (35%), and Bloc Quebecois (40%) voters, respectively. Notably, more than one-in-seven (17%) of those who supported the Liberals in 2019 say the same. About a third of the country (35%) disagree.
With COVID-19 vaccinations now underway, the notion of a spring election is overwhelmingly unpopular. As Canadians focus on an end to pandemic life, summer is also considered too soon by 63 per cent. A fall call is palatable to most, however, as two-thirds say an election between September and December would be appropriate.
Whenever an election is called, the priority for the Conservative Party will be figuring out how to endear their leader to a broader subsection of the population. Just 29 per cent of Canadians have a favourable view of Erin O’Toole, while positive perceptions of Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh hover in the mid 40’s.
More Key Findings:
- Current vote intention finds the Liberal Party holding a four-point advantage over the CPC (35% to 31%), while the NDP is chosen by 19 per cent.
- Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has an approval rating of 45 per cent, unchanged from February.
- Erin O’Toole’s favourability with 2019 CPC voters is 64 per cent. Comparatively, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh holds a favourability of 85 per cent and Justin Trudeau has an approval rating of 81 per cent among their party’s 2019 voters.
- Older Canadians are less inclined to head to the polls this year. Those 65 years of age and older are least likely to say that an election at any point in 2021 would be inappropriate compared to younger residents.
- The Liberal Party has a 15-point vote intention advantage in the Greater Toronto Area and Metro Vancouver. In Greater Montreal, 47 per cent would vote for the Liberals and just 10 per cent for the CPC.