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EnergyNow Morning Oil Price Report
Report Date & Time: October 1, 2026 – 5:29 a.m. MDT – Using Trading View Prices
Summary
- WTI crude is approximately US$92.48 per barrel, up US$2.06, or 2.28%, from Wednesday’s official US$90.42 settlement. Oil is sharply higher after Chinese refiners suspended most October fuel exports, adding pressure to already tight global gasoline and diesel supplies.
- Brent crude is approximately US$100.09 per barrel on the current December 2026 contract, up US$2.06, or 2.10%, from Wednesday’s comparable December settlement of US$98.03. Brent has therefore moved back above the psychologically important $100 level.
- China’s fuel-export suspension is the immediate catalyst, but oil is also being supported by tight global diesel supplies, stalled U.S.-Iran diplomacy and continued uncertainty over possible U.S. diesel-export restrictions.
Latest Oil Prices
As of approximately 5:29 a.m. MDT Thursday, WTI was trading near US$92.48 per barrel, up $2.06 from Wednesday’s $90.42 settlement — a gain of approximately 2.28%.
Brent was approximately US$100.09, compared with Wednesday’s US$98.03 settlement for the December contract, putting Brent higher by US$2.06, or 2.10%. Both benchmarks are therefore clearly higher this morning.
The Brent comparison is especially important because the November Brent contract expired Wednesday. November settled at $103.50, but the more actively traded December contract finished Wednesday at $98.03. This report compares Thursday’s December price with Wednesday’s December settlement rather than mixing different contract months.
WTI remains on the November contract.
Why Oil Is Moving
The biggest new development is China.
Chinese refiners have suspended most fuel exports for October as Beijing prioritizes rebuilding domestic inventories amid continuing disruptions to global energy markets. Major refiners have cancelled planned cargoes, and new export allocations have not been approved beyond Hong Kong and Macau.
China’s domestic diesel inventories are reportedly about 20 million barrels below pre-war levels, while gasoline stocks are roughly nine million barrels lower. Removing additional Chinese refined products from the international market could intensify shortages elsewhere. The move comes when diesel markets are already under severe strain because of the Middle East conflict, Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and Russia’s decision to extend its diesel-export restrictions through October.
Key Market Risks or Catalysts
The United States is becoming another major variable.
President Donald Trump said Wednesday that his administration is still considering restrictions on U.S. diesel exports as it tries to contain record domestic fuel prices. Washington is also urging Germany and France to release emergency diesel reserves.
A U.S. export restriction combined with reduced Chinese and Russian exports could further tighten the international diesel market.
Middle East supply presents the counterargument. Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf oil exports — including so-called dark exports — have recovered to approximately 23.3 million barrels per day, around average 2025 levels. Saudi Arabia has also resumed tanker loadings through its Red Sea facilities.
U.S. production is another bearish factor. American crude output reached a record 13.955 million bpd in the week ending September 25, according to EIA data cited by Reuters.
Bottom Line
Oil has started October with a strong rally.
WTI is back above $92 while current-contract Brent has reclaimed $100, as China’s decision to restrict fuel exports puts renewed attention on the increasingly tight global refined-products market.
The key tension remains between recovering Middle East crude exports and constrained global refining and fuel supplies.
If China maintains its export suspension while Russia continues restricting diesel and Washington limits U.S. exports, refined-product shortages could provide substantial support to crude prices even as Gulf oil production and exports recover.
Western Canadian Select (WCS)
The latest available September 30 WCS market indication is US$64.24 per barrel, with a reported WTI-WCS discount of US$22.50 per barrel. That differential implies a comparable WTI pricing reference of approximately US$86.74 per barrel.
The previous trading day, September 29, WCS was reported at US$67.44 per barrel with a US$20.75 discount. The WCS differential therefore widened by US$1.75 per barrel in one trading day, from $20.75 to $22.50.
That is a notable deterioration for Canadian heavy crude producers. Recent weakness in the differential has been associated with refinery maintenance, reduced U.S. Midwest heavy-crude demand, rising Western Canadian production and tighter pipeline capacity. S&P Global recently reported that major refinery work had removed roughly 750,000 bpd of demand while Trans Mountain was operating near full capacity. S&P Global
There is an important methodology distinction: the WCS figures are physical-market indications and their associated WTI reference is not the same as Thursday morning’s November NYMEX futures price of $92.48. The $22.50 reported differential is therefore the appropriate WCS spread comparison; subtracting Wednesday’s WCS price from Thursday morning’s futures quote would create an asynchronous and misleading spread.
Who Watches the WCS Price
Oil sands producers realize WCS-linked prices on unhedged production, and their capital plans key off the differential outlook. US Midwest and Gulf Coast refiners with coking capacity buy WCS as feedstock and treat the differential as their margin opportunity. The Alberta government forecasts royalty and tax revenue directly off WCS — a one-dollar move in the differential is worth hundreds of millions of dollars to the provincial budget over a fiscal year. And diluent demand links WCS volumes back to condensate markets.
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