EnergyNow Morning Oil Price Report

Report Date & Time: September 18, 2026 – 5:30 a.m. MDT – Using Trading View Prices

See Up-To-Date Prices Here

Summary

• WTI crude is approximately US$101.30 per barrel, down US$0.61, or 0.60%, from Thursday’s official US$101.91 settlement. Oil is lower for a third consecutive session as fears of a major Saudi supply interruption continue to ease.
• Brent crude is approximately US$103.17 per barrel, down US$1.65, or 1.57%, from Thursday’s US$104.82 settlement. Brent is headed toward an approximately 1.4% weekly decline, which would be its first weekly loss in three weeks.
• The market’s focus has shifted from the possibility of an immediate Saudi export crisis toward improving alternative crude flows, rising petroleum-product inventories and increased Chinese fuel exports. But the Strait of Hormuz and the broader Middle East conflict remain major upside risks.

Latest Oil Prices

At approximately 5:30 a.m. MDT Friday, WTI was trading near US$101.30 per barrel, compared with Thursday’s official settlement of US$101.91. That represents a decline of US$0.61 per barrel, or about 0.60%.

Brent was around US$103.17 per barrel, versus Thursday’s US$104.82 settlement, putting the international benchmark US$1.65 lower, or approximately 1.57%.

Both benchmarks therefore remain above $100 but have retreated significantly from the highs reached earlier this week when attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure pushed Brent above $109.

WTI remains on the October 2026 front-month contract. There is no material futures-contract rollover distortion affecting today’s day-over-day comparison.

Why Oil Is Moving

The primary bearish catalyst is improving confidence that Saudi Arabia can maintain significant exports despite damage to its East-West Pipeline.

Saudi Aramco is expected to export approximately 60 million barrels during September and October from Ras Tanura, with crude moving through the Gulf before ship-to-ship transfers near Sohar, Oman. That translates into roughly 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day, helping compensate for reduced Red Sea exports through Yanbu.

The prospect that part of the damaged East-West Pipeline can also be restored relatively quickly has further reduced the extreme supply premium that entered the market earlier this week.

Inventories are contributing to the softer tone. Petroleum-product stocks have risen in the United States, Singapore and Europe, while China’s refined-product exports increased 12.7% year over year in August, adding supply to international fuel markets.

Key Market Risks or Catalysts

The biggest risk remains the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker traffic is still well below normal, and the route remains vulnerable to further military escalation. Before the current conflict, approximately one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies moved through the Strait.

The Saudi workaround also comes at a substantial cost. Reuters reports that supertanker freight rates for October cargoes from Fujairah to Asia have surged to record levels, demonstrating that the physical oil market remains far from normal even as crude availability improves.

Diplomacy will be another major catalyst. Failed U.S.-Iran peace efforts have left the underlying conflict unresolved, with Middle East security likely to receive significant attention during next week’s United Nations General Assembly.

Interest rates are also becoming increasingly important. The Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate increase this week reflects renewed inflation concerns partly driven by the energy-price shock. Higher borrowing costs could eventually slow economic growth and petroleum demand.

Bottom Line

Oil is ending the week on a softer note, with WTI around $101 and Brent near $103, as the market reassesses the probability of a prolonged Saudi supply disruption.

The Saudi export workaround, expected pipeline repairs and higher petroleum inventories have removed part of this week’s geopolitical premium.

But this is not yet a return to normal market conditions. Hormuz traffic remains disrupted, freight costs are exceptionally high and the Middle East conflict remains unresolved.

The key question heading into next week is whether Saudi export flows continue improving. If they do, crude could surrender more of its recent gains. Any renewed attack on Saudi infrastructure or deterioration around Hormuz could quickly reverse the decline.

Western Canadian Select (WCS)

The latest publicly available WCS price located for this report is US$90.08 per barrel, dated September 16, up US$1.04 from the September 15 assessment of US$89.04. A sufficiently reliable September 17 Hardisty assessment was not publicly available by publication time.

For the closest date-matched comparison, WTI settled September 16 at US$102.43, implying an indicative WTI-WCS spread of approximately US$12.35 per barrel.

Using the same published WCS series, September 15 WCS was US$89.04, while WTI settled at US$105.83, producing an indicative spread of approximately US$16.79. On that basis, the WTI-WCS gap narrowed by approximately US$4.44 per barrel from September 15 to September 16.

These figures should be treated as an indicative date-matched comparison rather than a simultaneous physical-market differential, because the WCS price series and WTI futures settlements use different pricing methodologies and timestamps. Friday morning WTI near $101.30 should therefore not be combined with Wednesday’s $90.08 WCS assessment to claim a current Friday spread.

Who Watches the WCS Price

Oil sands producers realize WCS-linked prices on unhedged production, and their capital plans key off the differential outlook. US Midwest and Gulf Coast refiners with coking capacity buy WCS as feedstock and treat the differential as their margin opportunity. The Alberta government forecasts royalty and tax revenue directly off WCS — a one-dollar move in the differential is worth hundreds of millions of dollars to the provincial budget over a fiscal year. And diluent demand links WCS volumes back to condensate markets.

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