COMMENTARY: PM Carney Has His Confirmed Majority – Now Is the Time to Build Using His Political Capital

By EnergyNow Editorial Staff

Prime Minister Mark Carney emerged from the August 31 byelections with something most Canadian prime ministers would envy: a reinforced parliamentary majority, several years before he must face voters again and fresh evidence that Canadians are prepared to trust his leadership during a period of extraordinary economic uncertainty.

The Liberals swept all three contests. Beaches–East York in Ontario, North Vancouver–Capilano in British Columbia and, most significantly, the traditionally Conservative riding of Chicoutimi–Le Fjord in Quebec. The results leave the Liberals with 173 seats in the 343-seat House of Commons, strengthening a majority that does not depend on opposition parties to survive confidence votes or pass legislation.

The question is no longer whether Carney possesses political capital. It is what he intends to do with it.

This may be his best opportunity to make the difficult decisions necessary to accelerate Canadian oil and natural gas development, and to turn his promise of making Canada an “energy superpower” into projects that are actually financed, approved and built.  Most oil and gas development decisions will be opposed by activists and even some within his own party. Nothing new there.

Move the West Coast Pipeline Faster

The most immediate test is the proposed one-million-barrel-per-day oil pipeline from Alberta to the West Coast.

Ottawa and Alberta have already advanced the proposal to the Major Projects Office, which is conducting consultations before deciding whether it should be designated a project of national interest. The government’s current target is to reach that decision by October 1. Government of Canada

Carney should not allow that date to become another procedural milestone followed by months of uncertainty. If the government believes the pipeline is in Canada’s national interest, it should say so unequivocally, establish a firm regulatory schedule and identify the commercial structure needed to move it toward a final investment decision.

The proposed pipeline would provide approximately one million barrels per day of new capacity and significantly expand Canada’s access to Asian and other global markets. The federal government itself acknowledges that limited access to tidewater remains a structural constraint on the Canadian energy sector. Major Projects Office

That constraint has become more dangerous during the escalating trade conflict with the United States. Roughly 90 per cent of Canadian crude exports still go to the U.S. Trans Mountain CEO Mark Maki recently argued that the deterioration in Canada-U.S. relations has added urgency to the West Coast proposal.

A country cannot credibly promise to diversify its trade while leaving most of its most valuable export commodity dependent on a single customer.

Endorse the Alberta-to-Ontario Pipeline

Carney should also endorse the Northern Shield Energy Corridor proposed by Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Ontario Premier Doug Ford.

The proposed 3,300-kilometre pipeline would run from Hardisty, Alberta, to refining facilities in Sarnia, Ontario. Initial capacity is projected at 500,000 barrels per day, expandable to as much as 800,000 barrels per day, with the possibility of eventually extending the corridor toward an export outlet. Government of Alberta

Federal endorsement would not mean writing a blank cheque or prejudging Indigenous consultation and environmental review. It would mean recognizing the project as strategically important and directing the Major Projects Office to work with Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Indigenous communities and potential private-sector proponents to determine whether it is commercially viable.

Such a pipeline could strengthen domestic energy security, supply Ontario refineries with more Western Canadian crude and reduce Canada’s exposure to pipelines that cross through the United States, including the continually threatened Line 5 system.

A West Coast pipeline and an Alberta-to-Ontario pipeline should not be viewed as competing proposals. One would diversify Canada’s international customers; the other would strengthen the country’s internal energy market. Canada needs both forms of resilience.

Other Decisions Carney Could Make Now

Pipeline endorsements should be part of a broader energy competitiveness package. Ottawa could move quickly on several fronts:

• Establish a single federal decision-maker and enforceable timelines for major energy projects, eliminating repetitive reviews among departments.
• Formally remove the proposed oil and gas emissions cap once equivalent reductions are addressed through industrial carbon pricing, methane controls and large-scale carbon capture. The 2025 federal budget acknowledged that effective carbon markets and emissions-reduction technology could make the cap unnecessary. Federal Budget 2025
• Provide long-term certainty for carbon capture investment tax credits and contracts for difference so that the Pathways carbon capture project can proceed without continual fiscal renegotiation.
• Make industrial carbon-pricing rules predictable beyond the next election cycle while including protections against carbon leakage and foreign competitors operating under weaker standards.
• Accelerate approvals for LNG projects, natural gas pipelines and related infrastructure capable of supplying Asian and European markets.
• Expand Indigenous equity participation by using the recently increased $10-billion Indigenous Loan Guarantee Program to help communities become genuine project owners—not simply groups being consulted after routes have already been selected. Government of Canada
• Introduce investment incentives, accelerated depreciation and improved flow-through provisions for energy infrastructure, emissions-reduction technology and upstream development.
• Conduct a broader review of the Impact Assessment Act to give investors clearer requirements, fewer overlapping assessments and dependable decision dates.

The Obstacles Are Real

Moving quickly does not mean the obstacles disappear.

British Columbia may resist another oil pipeline to its coast. Environmental organizations will argue that new capacity is incompatible with Canada’s climate commitments. Some Quebec and urban Liberal MPs may oppose a more explicitly pro-development energy policy.

Indigenous consultation presents another critical challenge. Ottawa has a constitutional duty to consult and, where appropriate, accommodate affected rights-holders. A parliamentary majority cannot override that obligation. Nor should speed be used as an excuse for superficial consultation.

There is also the question of economics. Pipelines require committed shippers, defensible cost estimates and confidence that sufficient production will be available over decades. The Trans Mountain expansion demonstrated what can happen when construction delays, regulatory uncertainty and political conflict cause costs to spiral.

The Northern Shield proposal is even earlier in its development. It currently lacks a private-sector proponent, completed route, shipper commitments and definitive cost estimate. Federal enthusiasm cannot substitute for commercial discipline.

But these challenges are arguments for beginning the work immediately, not for leaving the proposals in permanent political limbo.

Political Capital Is Meant to Be Spent

Carney’s strongest argument is that the world has changed.

Canada faces an increasingly unpredictable United States, growing global competition for investment and an urgent need to increase productivity, exports and national income. Oil and natural gas remain among the country’s most valuable products and greatest strategic advantages.

The August 31 results suggest voters are willing to give Carney room to lead. They also give him time. With a stable majority and no immediate need for an election, he can make decisions whose benefits may take years to become visible.

Moving ahead will generate opposition. Yet refusing to move carries greater risks: continued dependence on the U.S. market, lost investment, constrained production, weaker government revenues and another decade of debating projects that other countries would already be building.

Carney has talked about building one Canadian economy, diversifying trade and making Canada an energy superpower. He now has the parliamentary strength to act on those promises.

The political conditions may never be better. The economic need may never be greater. The time to move is now.

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