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By Lennie Kaplan
New modeling reveals that Alberta’s economy (i.e. gross domestic product or GDP) benefits by up to a cumulative $200 billion or 4% over the next decade though a new economic deal that keeps our province within a united Canada, rather than pursuing independence.
My reference case modeling assumes an increase in Alberta’s oil production to around 7.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2035 if Alberta chooses to remain within Canada under a new economic deal, roughly aligned with the Alberta government’s roadmap target of 8 mb/d by 2035.
Although there are continuing economic questions as to whether this level of oil production is achievable by 2035, private sector investments in such projects as the West Coast Oil Pipeline (WCOP), other announced pipeline expansions and optimizations, brownfield and greenfield oil sands projects, and the Pathways CCS project are more likely to proceed under a new economic deal with Canada than under an independent Alberta. These projects could be jeopardized by the significant uncertainties associated with protracted negotiations over market access and trade agreement terms with the United States and other nations under an Alberta independence scenario.
Pursuing a new economic deal between Alberta and Canada, rather than independence, will benefit all Canadians, and give our country greater leverage in difficult negotiations with the United States over a renewed CUSMA. Trade leverage for Alberta and Canada is derived from unity not division.
Other key findings drawn from my modeling work regarding the positive impact that Albertans can achieve by a new economic deal with Canada rather than pursuing independence, include:
- Up to a $40 billion or a 7% boost to Alberta’s GDP in 2035;
- Up to 120,000 or a 4% increase in Alberta jobs in 2035;
- Up to $250 billion or a 20% boost to cumulative investment over the next decade;
- Up to $8 billion or a 10% increase in provincial government revenues in 2035; and
- Up to $45 billion or a 5% boost to cumulative provincial government revenues over the next decade.
Today I am calling on the University of Calgary School of Public Policy (SPP), the Advisory Panel, the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, the Alberta government and the Alberta Transition Council, to provide a detailed assessment of the positive impacts on the province’s economy from pursuing a new economic deal within Canada when they release their analytical reports in the next couple of weeks.
Lennie Kaplan is a former senior manager in the Fiscal and Economic Policy Division of Alberta’s Ministry of Treasury Board and Finance (TB&F), where, among other duties, he worked on energy issues, including participating on the Clean Energy Strategic Advisory Committee (CESAT) and the Alberta Competitiveness Review. In 2019, he served as executive director to the MacKinnon Panel on Alberta’s Finances.
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