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Summary
- Gasoline prices remain elevated despite crude easing toward pre-conflict levels
- Refining margins are near 2022 highs, boosted by exports and tight supply
- White House scrutiny is rising as industry pushes back on pricing claims
July 3 (Reuters) – U.S. oil companies are set to report their strongest quarterly profits in years, courting a possible clash with President Donald Trump, who has been pressing his longtime ally Big Oil to bring down gasoline prices before midterm elections in November.
After months of Americans complaining about pain at the pump, Exxon Mobil and Chevron are expected to report second-quarter earnings in the coming weeks that are more than triple first-quarter levels. Oil prices spiked after the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began in late February and global fuel supplies tightened.
Oil companies’ profits are forecast to rise to their highest levels since 2022. The expected bonanza could complicate the normally warm relationship between Trump and the oil industry, an important financial backer of Trump and the Republican Party.
Higher gasoline prices have amplified cries for affordability from Democrats hoping to win back control of the U.S. Congress, and also sank Trump’s approval rating as few Americans believed the Iran war was worth its costs.
The administration has urged the U.S. Justice Department to investigate possible gasoline price gouging. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned producers and refiners that the White House could consider administrative action if pump prices do not decline sharply.
“The industry is definitely talking to each other and thinking of ways to deal with it, but we know what’s coming. We understand the politics,” said one industry executive, speaking anonymously.
Since shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumed last month, Trump has said he wants the national average to fall to about $2.50 a gallon — well below the current average of roughly $3.85 and about 11% below the low for his current presidency of roughly $2.81 reached in late December.
Oil industry lobbyists have stepped up outreach to officials and lawmakers to blunt criticism, according to interviews with eight lobbyists and industry officials.
Oil executives say they have limited influence over retail gasoline prices. Crude oil prices account for nearly half of the price consumers pay at the pump, with the rest determined by refining, distribution, marketing and taxes.
Still, benchmark crude prices have returned to pre-war levels yet U.S. gasoline prices remain about 22% higher than before the war. Analysts and industry groups cite tight physical fuel markets and constrained gasoline inventories rather than crude oil prices alone.
Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, said the divergence highlights structural supply-demand pressures.
“Gasoline prices don’t move in lockstep with crude oil, especially during a major global disruption affecting supply, refining and inventories,” said Bethany Williams, a spokesperson for the American Petroleum Institute.
The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers said policymakers also play a role, citing regulatory costs.
“Refineries do not set the price of finished gasoline, and crude oil is just one of many inputs,” the group said. For instance, the Renewable Fuel Standard requires retailers to sell a certain percentage of fuel containing ethanol or other biofuels.
The White House said Trump’s top priority is lowering gasoline prices, citing falling oil prices since the Iran agreement and increased coordination with the oil industry on permitting and regulation.
Exxon declined to comment. Chevron referred to a June 25 interview with CNBC, in which CFO Eimear Bonner said it would take time for gasoline prices to normalize.
BUMPER PROFITS
Analysts expect Big Oil’s second-quarter earnings to be the strongest since 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine roiled energy markets. According to analyst estimates compiled by LSEG, Exxon Mobil is expected to report about $15.9 billion in adjusted net income, more than triple its first-quarter earnings. Chevron is forecast at about $9.9 billion, also more than triple its prior quarter.
Part of the increase will likely reflect a reversal of first-quarter accounting losses tied to derivatives used to hedge crude and refined product exposure. But analysts say the broader gains come from stronger market fundamentals.
Energy advisory firm TPH estimates U.S. gasoline crack spreads — the difference between the price of crude oil and the fuels produced from it — averaged about $25 a barrel in the second quarter, up roughly $16 from the prior quarter. It said diesel crack spreads rose about $15 to roughly $45 a barrel, the strongest margins since mid-2022. Robust demand for U.S. exports amplified gains as the war left refiners abroad short of supplies.
Despite pain at the pump for U.S. drivers, analysts at BMO Capital Markets expect oil companies to accelerate share buybacks in the second half of 2026, extending a post-pandemic focus on returns over production growth.
“Being the boogeyman is not particularly fun,” said one executive. “But we need to educate officials that this is a cyclical industry and that no one cares when the market turns and we are taking all the risk.”
Reporting by Jarrett Renshaw in Washington and Sheila Dang in Houston; Additional reporting by Arathy Somasekhar and Nicole Jao; Editing by Nathan Crooks and David Gregorio
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