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By EnergyNow Insights Staff
CALGARY, Alberta — Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says the conversation about Canada’s energy future has fundamentally changed.
Speaking at the Global Energy Show in Calgary, Smith argued that years of global geopolitical disruption, rising energy demand, and concerns over affordability have triggered a worldwide reassessment of the role oil and natural gas will play in the decades ahead.
According to Smith, the question is no longer whether Alberta’s energy industry has a future, but whether Canada can execute quickly enough to seize the opportunity before it.
“Global demand for oil and gas is not going away,” Smith told delegates. “It will remain strong for decades, especially in Asia, where growing economies are looking for stable, reliable supply.”
The Premier’s remarks came during a keynote address followed by a wide-ranging discussion with Jeff Lyons, CA, CBV, Vice-Chair, Service and Partnership Council Representative at Deloitte, where the two explored Alberta’s ambitions to increase oil production, expand export infrastructure, attract investment, and build stronger partnerships with Indigenous communities.
Alberta’s Resource Advantage
Smith began by emphasizing Alberta’s enormous resource base and the province’s ability to develop those resources responsibly.
Alberta currently holds more than 177 billion barrels of recoverable oil reserves, representing the world’s fourth-largest recoverable oil resource. At today’s prices, Smith estimated those reserves are worth more than $12 trillion.
She also pointed to recent reserve assessments showing Alberta’s recoverable natural gas resources have increased six-fold to approximately 144 trillion cubic feet.
“Our resources are significant, but just as important is our ability to develop them responsibly, efficiently, and at scale,” Smith said.
She highlighted Alberta’s skilled workforce, decades of operating experience, and regulatory framework as key competitive advantages as global energy markets increasingly prioritize security of supply.
The World Is Recalibrating
Smith argued that three major geopolitical developments have fundamentally altered global energy priorities.
The first was Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which exposed Europe’s vulnerability to energy disruptions. The second was increased uncertainty surrounding North American trade and energy relationships following the election of Donald Trump in the United States. The third was instability affecting energy transportation routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Taken together, Smith believes these events have caused governments around the world to rethink previous assumptions about energy.
“The world has come to the conclusion that affordable, reliable energy is absolutely essential for the health of their citizens,” she said.
She noted that nearly every major economy has experienced inflationary pressures in recent years, with energy costs playing a central role.
“At the heart of it is inflated prices of energy, which build into the cost of everything.”
From Vision to Execution
Lyons suggested that the discussion surrounding Alberta’s energy sector has shifted dramatically over the past year.
“We’re increasingly moving from a vision conversation to an execution conversation,” he noted.
Smith agreed.
She pointed to the implementation agreement signed between Alberta and the federal government in May as evidence that governments are becoming serious about accelerating major infrastructure projects.
Under the agreement, Alberta intends to submit a proposal for a new one-million-barrel-per-day pipeline to Canada’s West Coast. The agreement includes target dates that would allow regulatory approvals to be completed in time for construction to begin as early as September 2027.
“We committed together that there will be conditional approval from the Major Projects Office by October 1, with all of the regulatory approvals in place so that we can begin construction as soon as September 2027,” Smith said.
While acknowledging that meeting those deadlines remains the true test, she said formalizing them in writing sends a powerful signal to investors.
“I recognize that putting it on paper is one thing. Execution is another. But I think the fact that we put it on paper demonstrates that we’re both committed to achieving that outcome.”
Can Another West Coast Pipeline Be Built?
One of the most significant questions facing Alberta remains whether a new export pipeline can overcome political opposition in British Columbia.
Smith argued that Canada’s constitutional framework ultimately gives Ottawa authority over interprovincial trade and commerce.
“The federal government has a number of levers that can be persuasive,” she said.
At the same time, she stressed the importance of addressing concerns raised in British Columbia.
That includes selecting suitable marine terminals, improving spill response capabilities, involving Indigenous communities in marine safety operations, and ensuring economic benefits are shared among provinces.
Smith also suggested future arrangements could mirror aspects of the Trans Mountain Expansion tolling structure, where provincial governments receive revenue benefits from energy transportation infrastructure.
“We have lots of ways that Alberta and British Columbia can collaborate,” she said.
She pointed to cooperation on LNG exports, electricity interties, critical minerals development, and transportation infrastructure as examples of shared interests.
Investment Momentum Building
Smith believes Alberta is entering the early stages of a new investment cycle.
Recent announcements involving pipeline expansions, upstream development, LNG infrastructure, and major acquisitions have strengthened investor confidence.
However, she noted Alberta remains below historical peak investment levels.
“Normal for our economy when we’re in the middle of a boom is $60 billion to $80 billion a year being invested in the sector,” she said. “We’re only at about $40 billion right now.”
According to provincial estimates cited by Smith, adding approximately 1.5 million barrels per day of additional export capacity could generate $31 billion in new GDP annually and create more than 114,000 jobs.
“I don’t think there is any single major project that could have such an extraordinary impact as getting this pipeline built.”
She added that Alberta’s ability to access Asian markets has dramatically improved since the completion of the Trans Mountain Expansion project.
Some Asian buyers who previously paid little attention to Canadian crude are now actively seeking long-term supply agreements.
“As much as you can get us, we will buy,” Smith said, describing discussions with potential customers across Asia.
The Path to Eight Million Barrels Per Day
Perhaps the most ambitious objective outlined by Smith is Alberta’s goal of reaching eight million barrels per day of oil production by 2035.
While some observers view the target as aggressive, Smith suggested the infrastructure required to achieve it is already taking shape.
When she first announced the objective several years ago, Alberta was producing approximately 3.7 million barrels per day. Production has since climbed to roughly five million barrels per day.
Future growth could come through multiple infrastructure projects, including:
- Enbridge system expansions
- Additional Trans Mountain capacity
- South Bow and Bridger projects
- A proposed one-million-barrel-per-day West Coast pipeline
“When you add all those together, you’ll see that we’re almost there,” Smith said.
The Premier also cited projections from OPEC, which forecast global oil demand reaching approximately 125 million barrels per day by 2050.
“We want to be a growing share of that growing market.”
Beyond Oil: Alberta’s “Energy Addition” Strategy
While oil and natural gas remain central to Alberta’s economic future, Smith emphasized that the province is pursuing what she calls an “all-of-the-above” energy strategy.
Natural gas exports through LNG facilities on Canada’s West Coast remain a major opportunity.
At the same time, Alberta is investing heavily in emerging technologies.
One area generating significant excitement is geothermal energy.
Smith noted that drilling techniques originally developed for SAGD oil sands production are now being adapted for geothermal applications.
“We’re kind of reversing it and building an underground radiator,” she said.
If developers can economically reach depths capable of generating temperatures around 450 degrees Celsius, geothermal facilities could provide both heat and reliable baseload electricity.
The province is also evaluating large-scale nuclear power and supporting research into small modular reactor deployment.
Although Smith believes SMRs remain relatively expensive today, she expects costs to decline as technologies mature.
From Energy Transition to Energy Addition
One of the most notable themes of Smith’s presentation was her rejection of the idea that the world is moving from one energy source to another.
Instead, she promoted what she called an “energy addition” model.
The concept was inspired by discussions she attended in the United Arab Emirates, where policymakers argued that future energy demand will require every available source of power.
Rather than replacing oil and gas, renewable energy, geothermal, nuclear, and other technologies will supplement existing energy systems.
“We are going to need all energy sources in order to meet the dual goal of keeping emissions low and declining while increasing the quality of life and standard of living of every person on the planet,” Smith said.
She noted that billions of people still lack access to the energy abundance enjoyed in North America.
That reality, she argued, requires a pragmatic approach focused on expanding overall energy supply while continuing to improve environmental performance.
Indigenous Ownership as the New Model
Smith concluded by discussing what she views as one of the most important developments in Canadian energy policy: Indigenous equity ownership.
Rather than relying solely on consultation or benefit agreements, Alberta has embraced a model that enables Indigenous communities to become direct owners of major infrastructure projects.
The province has established a $3-billion Indigenous loan guarantee program designed to help First Nations acquire ownership stakes in projects ranging from power generation facilities to pipelines and renewable energy developments.
Smith cited the example of Fort McKay First Nation, whose long-standing partnerships with industry have helped transform it into one of the most economically successful communities in Canada.
“Fort McKay is the richest community in Canada—not the richest Indigenous community, the richest community in Canada,” she said.
Alberta’s goal is to replicate that success across the province.
The federal government has since launched its own $10-billion Indigenous loan guarantee initiative, creating additional opportunities for Indigenous participation in major projects nationwide.
“This is the new model for reconciliation,” Smith said.
“It begins with an understanding that you can’t have reconciliation without economic reconciliation.”
Alberta’s Message to Investors
Throughout the discussion, Smith repeatedly returned to a central theme: Alberta believes global demand growth, geopolitical realities, and improving cooperation between governments have created a rare opportunity.
The province’s challenge now is execution.
Whether the focus is pipelines, LNG, geothermal energy, nuclear power, or Indigenous ownership, Alberta’s strategy is built around creating conditions that encourage long-term investment while improving access to global markets.
“Our objective is to create a stable, competitive environment where investors proceed with confidence, projects are delivered efficiently, and energy is produced responsibly,” Smith said.
For Alberta’s energy sector, the Premier’s message was clear: the next decade will not be defined by debates over ambition, but by the ability to turn plans into projects.
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