INSIGHT: Is the Alberta Government Continuing to Sneak its Net Zero Agenda in Through the Back Door? – Lennie Kaplan

By Lennie Kaplan

 

With the third anniversary of Premier Danielle Smith’s net zero emissions (Alberta NZE) agenda, known as the Alberta Emissions Reduction and Energy Development Plan (EREDP), come and gone, it appears the Alberta government has no intention of publishing a comprehensive public progress report on NZE implementation.

These are among the key insights drawn from a review of partial records on Alberta NZE implementation obtained from Alberta Environment and Protected Areas (EPA) under Access to Information (ATI).

The EREDP was released on April 19, 2023 with two of the headlines items being Alberta NZE 2050 and an increase in Justin Trudeau’s and Danielle Smith’s industrial carbon tax to $170 per tonne by 2030. Now we find out that this would have cost Alberta industry about $250 billion over the next two decades out to 2050. Is this why there has been no comprehensive public progress report on NZE implementation for over three years?

A March 11, 2026 internal EPA email setting out a summary of actions led by EPA in EREDP or Alberta NZE 2050 states that as far as publishing progress reports, a “decision was made not to proceed.”

This is a curious as it is Premier Smith who has been enthusiastically pitching her Alberta NZE agenda since July 2022, reaffirming it in the EREDP or the Alberta NZE climate change plan, talking about it extensively with Ottawa MPs, and officially signing on to it, along with the Carney federal Liberals, as the headline item of the Canada-Alberta MOU, and now the most recent Carney-Smith Alberta carbon tax agreement.

The lack of action on Alberta NZE progress reporting leads me to surmise that the Smith government is proceeding behind the curtains, collaborating with the federal Liberals, on the NZE agenda, but hiding the devastating negative impacts from Albertans.

My own comprehensive modeling estimates that Alberta NZE will have the following negative consequences for Albertans:

• NZE could reduce Canada’s economy by a cumulative $2.1 trillion between 2025 and 2050, with $559 billion, or 27%, of the negative economic fallout occurring in Alberta, alone, despite Alberta’s GDP comprising less than 16% of Canada’s total GDP.
• The $559 billion cost to the Alberta economy from Alberta NZE is over 30% higher than the $428 billion in Albertans financial wealth, including income taxes, projected to be sent to Ottawa between 2007 and 2032.
• Alberta NZE could see Albertans average wage rates decline by $3.00 per hour by 2050.
• Alberta NZE could cut provincial revenues by $140 billion between 2025 and 2050, leading to large Alberta government budget deficits and a rising provincial debt burden, well into the future.
• Alberta NZE could cut oil sands production by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) from business-as-usual (BAU) by 2050, effectively eroding the future economic value (net present value) of Alberta’s critical oil sands sector

Albertans know that impact analysis on Alberta NZE is being done. In fact, the same March 11 internal EPA email states that EPA continues climate modelling…and economic analysis. A recent request for information revealed there are nearly 30,000 pages in responsive records. The Alberta government won’t share these documents with Albertans. This is unacceptable.

Back in November 2025, I called on the Alberta’s Office of the Auditor General (OAG) to initiate a comprehensive audit on whether the Alberta government has adequate systems and processes in place for planning, monitoring, and reporting on Alberta NZE. I reiterate that call, today.

Carney-Smith NZE needs to be put to a 2026 fall provincial referendum so Albertans can decide whether this is a course worth pursuing. I am very confident that, when presented with full impact analysis information, Albertans will tell the provincial government to scrap its commitment to net zero and come up with more realistic policies.

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Lennie Kaplan was a senior manager in the fiscal and economic policy division of the Ministry of Treasury Board and Finance where he worked on cross-ministry initiatives evaluating the fiscal and economic impacts of federal and provincial energy and climate change policies.

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