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By Jason Clemens and Tegan Hill
Prime Minister Carney unveiled his new cabinet and did post-announcement media but failed to provide the clarity about his government’s actual views on resource development, particularly oil and natural gas. This uncertainty continues to impede private-sector investment, which our country badly needs.
Uncertainty is an investment killer because it makes it almost impossible for entrepreneurs, businesses and investors to reasonably weigh the risks, potential benefits and hurdles of a potential investment. A broadly recognized measure of uncertainty shows Canadian uncertainty at historic levels. The average monthly uncertainty measure between January 1985, when the data series began and December 2019 just before COVID was 135. The average for the first four months of 2025 was 1,300, almost 10 times higher.
An enormous part of that uncertainty relates to Trump’s tariffs, and the havoc they’re inflicting on entrepreneurs, investors and workers. But contradictions from the federal government in several key policy areas including government spending and borrowing, and energy policy are also creating uncertainty.
Unfortunately, Prime Minister Carney’s recent cabinet appointments and his subsequent media interviews failed to provide clarity.
Consider Tim Hodgson, the new Minister of Energy and Resources. He has a strong background in finance—CEO of Goldman Sachs Canada, chair of Ontario’s electric utility company Hydro One and investment board chair of the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan. The latter is important because he oversaw and approved investments in traditional energy companies such as Suncor and Canadian Natural Resources. Hodgson also has ties with the Alberta business community through his board appointments on several Calgary-based companies. His appointment has been interpreted by some that the Carney government will pursue policies to develop our oil and gas sector.
But the appointment of Julie Dabrusin as the Minister of the Environment and Climate Change signals the exact opposite. Dabrusin was the Parliamentary Secretary to the two previous Environment Ministers, Jonathan Wilkinson and Steven Guilbeault. Both opposed several pipeline developments, were instrumental in the introduction of a cap on emissions from the oil and gas sector, and other measures specifically designed to limit—if not actually decrease growth—in Canada’s traditional energy sector. A number of high-profile people in the energy patch, including Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, have already raised concerns about her appointment and what it means for energy development.
The appointments of Hodgson and Dabrusin continue the Carney government’s contradictory approach to policy, seemingly trying to be all things to all Canadians.
In a recent interview with CTV News, Prime Minister Carney simultaneously stated his support for new pipelines to deliver oil and gas to new markets but would not clarify if that meant revising or removing legislation that is broadly seen as a barrier to such developments. More specifically, during the campaign Carney said he would not eliminate Bill C-69, which covers how large infrastructure projects including pipelines are reviewed and approved. It’s widely agreed that Bill C-69 and its evaluation criteria make it almost impossible to build new pipelines in Canada.
Moreover, he failed to clarify whether he would eliminate the government’s current cap on emissions from the oil and gas sector, which is widely accepted as a cap on production. Indeed, according to the independent Parliamentary Budget Officer, the cap would result in less oil and gas production.
These glaring contradictions, which appear to be rooted in attempts to satisfy all Canadians and voting constituents, will need to be clarified at some point. There will come a time—whether it’s a budget (which apparently Canadians won’t see until next year), an application by a company to build a new pipeline, or perhaps just the continuing economic stagnation of the country—when the prime minister will be forced to make a clear choice. Until then, the cost of uncertainty will continue to impose real hardship on Canadians.
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