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Singh’s party down to single digits as left of centre voters stampede away from the NDP
March 17, 2025 – A whirlwind first quarter of 2025 has swept up Canadian politics and tossed it back down in an unrecognizable jumble.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds the governing Liberal Party – led by newly sworn-in Prime Minister Mark Carney – surging to a five-point vote intention advantage nationally after trailing by 29 points in late December. Were these numbers to hold, with the Liberals at 42 per cent in vote intention, what was a tired, discardable brand just three months ago would be on its way to a fourth term, this time with a majority.
The causes are myriad, with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre losing two of his biggest targets – Justin Trudeau and the carbon tax – and U.S. President Donald Trump generating a wave of Canadian pride and nationalism with tariff and annexation threats. Over this three-month period Liberal support has jumped 30 points in the city of Toronto, 25 points in 905 ridings.
There are serious caveats, however.
While the party has skyrocketed into majority territory not seen since 2016, much of this vote intention lacks solidity. Half of would-be Liberal voters currently say they’re very committed to this position (49%), 17-points lower than the CPC base (66%).
That said, Carney enters the job with some key advantages over Poilievre. He is seen as best to handle the ongoing trade war and Trump’s annexation threats by a majority of Canadians, while Poilievre is seen as best by three-in-10. The same proportions say this when considering which leader will capably steward Canada’s economy more broadly.
More bluntly, 41 per cent now view Carney as best suited to be prime minister compared to 29 per cent for Poilievre. At least measurement, with Trudeau sitting in the PM chair, Poilievre led the Liberal leader by 19 points on this question.
Link to the poll, and more key findings, here: www.angusreid.org/
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