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Electoral recovery hinges on large group of undecided & NDP voters who “might” still support Liberals
January 3, 2025 – Just days into the new year the future of the governing Liberal Party remains obscured as its most prominent figure, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, continues to mull his next plans. This, after one of the most politically challenging months of his nine-year term saw his approval and his party’s vote intention tumble to new lows.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds that in an ironic twist, the person most likely to imbue the Liberals with some (though currently faint) hope in these dire electoral circumstances is the person who played a significant part in these challenges.
After she resigned as Finance Minster in December, Chrystia Freeland is most likely – among six potential candidates to potentially compete for succession in the prime minister’s resignation – to increase their party’s vote share in a future election.
Currently the Liberal Party is able to rely on loyal base of just 13 per cent of Canadians. This group is most likely to stay with the party come what may. (Note, data released December 30 indicated vote intention among only decided and leaning voters at 16 per cent)
In the event Freeland were to succeed as Liberal Party leader, the party’s fortunes among the total population jumps eight points to 21 per cent. While this offers her a large advantage over Mark Carney, Melanie Joly, Dominic Leblanc, Anita Anand, and Francois-Philippe Champagne, all of whom generate little change compared to Trudeau, the Conservative Party still holds a commanding advantage in all situations. In a faceoff against a Freeland-led Liberal Party, the CPC still hold a 15-point lead.
For the Liberals, the challenge is clear: currently, one-quarter of Canadians (27%) say they might consider supporting that party but do not currently. Within this group of available voters two-in-five (38%) say they would vote for the NDP, while 26 per cent are initially undecided when asked about a future election. Prime Minister Trudeau does not fare well among this group that “might consider” his party. He holds a 59 per cent disapproval rating, though Pierre Poilievre fares even worse, with 79 per cent saying they view him unfavourably.
Link to the poll here: www.angusreid.org/
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