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Analysts at CIBC say they’re doubtful Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s plan to spur development of a West Coast bitumen pipeline will succeed.
They say in a report that they applaud the effort and are open to the possibility of such a project going ahead, but the political and economic realities may be difficult to overcome.
Smith says her government is putting up $14 million for early planning work on a pipeline that it hopes the private sector will eventually take over, with potential Indigenous ownership.
A committee of industry, First Nations and political leaders will advise on the specifics of a proposal, including its route to the northern B.C. coast.
Alberta is to act as the project proponent and aims to file a regulatory application to the new federal Major Projects Office in the spring.
The CIBC analysts say the advisory committee is credible and shows such a project would be in the national interest, but many hurdles remain.
“It may be a long road ahead to move a pipeline from the development stage to a sanctioned project, even with the newly created Major Projects Office under the Building Canada Act,” the report said.
“Despite campaigning on a promise to render final decisions on projects on a maximum two-year timeline, the timelines were notably absent from the act.”
The analysts note that only one project has been approved since 2019 under existing federal environmental review legislation that many industry players want to see scrapped: the Infrastructure Assessment Act. For the proposal to succeed, a federal oil tanker ban on the northern B.C. coast would need to be removed and emissions cap would need to be modified or eliminated so it doesn’t act as a limit on oilsands production, they wrote.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 2, 2025.
Lauren Krugel, The Canadian Press
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