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Head Down or Elbows Up? Canadians Divided Whether Carney Can Deliver a Trade Deal with Trump


These translations are done via Google Translate

Three-in-five say gov’t should take a hard line in negotiations (63%), other prefer soft approach (37%)

July 15, 2025 – Another day, another tariff threat from the Trump administration. This time, U.S. President Donald Trump suggested in a letter that Canada will be subject to a 35-per-cent tariff on all goods by Aug. 1. For Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Canadian negotiating team, the approach appears to centre on keeping their head down rather than their elbows up. Canadians appear to want more push back.

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds nearly half of Canadians saying they support the decision to kill the digital services tax on American tech companies, after negotiations were stalled by Trump and his team, calling that tax a non-starter for a deal. That said, Canadians are drawing a line in the sand with many key items on Trump’s list of trade irritants, and three-in-five say Canada should take a “hard approach” (63%) rather than a “soft one” (37%). Note that these data were taken both before and after Trump’s announcement of the new 35-per-cent tariff rate.


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angus reid institute poll results july 15, 2025 chart 1

When it comes to supply management, half of Canadians say Canada’s team should stand firm, even if it means retaliation. Trump has repeatedly made false claims about the policy and appears to be pushing for concessions. One-in-three (35%) would put it on the table as a last resort, while 15 per cent would offer to end the program of quotas and price controls outright.

angus reid institute poll results july 15, 2025 chart 2

GLJ

Other areas are stickier. Seven-in-10 oppose increasing any U.S. access to water in this country, whether it’s the Columbia River (72%) or the Great Lakes (72%), as the Trump administration has threatened to walk away from deals governing the latter, and paused negotiations on management of the former.

Two-thirds (66%) say no to offering the U.S. first priority on critical minerals, and more than half say the same to the idea of increasing access to the Canadian market for U.S. banks (53%) or committing to buying more U.S. military equipment (54%). This, after Carney announced a commitment to work with Europe in reaching new NATO spending targets.

angus reid institute poll results july 15, 2025 chart 3

With the tit-for-tat unfolding daily in headlines, managing domestic confidence will be a challenge for Carney and his team. Currently an equal number of Canadians are confident (46%) and not confident (45%) that he will be able to deliver a good deal for Canada. Those who have confidence say it’s largely because they trust the PM (72%), while those who lack it are divided between the sentiment that Trump is too difficult to deal with (47%) or that Carney isn’t the right person to find an agreement (53%).

angus reid institute poll results july 15, 2025 chart 4

Link to the poll, and more key findings, here: www.angusreid.org/

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