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By William Lacey
Every morning I wake up and wait to see what comes forth from the White House, what with on again, off again tariffs and the race to the top with China / USA tariff escalation (current score – USA tariff on China: 145%, China tariff on USA: 125%). Honestly, it feels like an episode of Bugs Bunny, except the consequences of this episode are much more real.
Previously I have posted on Canada and its trade with the United States, on a more broader level, in the post Looking at the Canada – US Trade Flow Picture, and at a more discrete level when it came to steel and aluminum tariffs in the post Another Day, Another Tariff….
Today, I decided to broaden the scope and look at the United States from a more macro perspective and see what the net imports and exports look like. According to Trading Economics, in 2024 the United States exported approximately US$2 trillion of goods, while it imported US$3.2 trillion of goods, leading to a trade deficit of US$1.2 trillion in goods. As there are a huge number of countries that the United States does business with (196) and many of those relationships are de minimis, I thought I would focus in on the relationships that matter. How do I define “material”? Those relationships that make up 90% of trade with the United States.
First, the “bad” guys, namely those who import more into the United States than they buy. Leading the pack is China, the source of all consternation right now. Canada is a distant sixth, driven by the fact that it supplies a material amount of oil and gas to the energy complex in the United States.
Next, the “good” guys, namely those who buy more from the United States than they import. The irony here being that prior to the repreve, even the “good guys” were being subject to a 10% global tariff because the United States was tired of getting screwed.
As we have all heard, President Trump has said that “countries are calling me up, kissing my ass…they are dying to make a deal”, and now we have a 90 day window to see what happens. The point of all this is that not all “deals” will be the same (obvious). When Argentina talks about having an agreement for no tariffs, it rings somewhat hollow to me as Argentina is also a net importer from the United States, so the give is far less significant. So, keep the charts above front of mind when you hear of trade deals being struck. Context matters.
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