Premier Danielle Smith shores up Alberta base promising autonomy from Ottawa

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is cementing her support among the Canadian province’s rural right-wing voters ahead of May’s election, polling showed on Thursday, even as a law promising more provincial autonomy within Canada comes under fire from industry leaders and legal experts.

Smith became premier of Canada’s main oil-producing province in October after winning the ruling United Conservative Party (UCP) leadership contest with pledges to stand up to overreach by the federal government in Ottawa.

The Alberta legislature passed the controversial Alberta Sovereignty Act on Thursday, allowing Alberta to amend federal laws it dislikes. It was changed so that Smith’s cabinet could not use it without the approval of a majority of provincial lawmakers, but many experts say it will not survive a legal challenge.

Data from polling firm Angus Reid Institute, collected last week, showed 48% of Albertans would vote for Smith’s UCP versus 44% for the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP). A late November Leger poll showed the NDP with 47% of support and the UCP with 44%.

The numbers suggest the Sovereignty Act is not as unpopular within Alberta as it is with the rest of Canada, said Angus Reid president Shachi Kurl.

“It’s important to remember that inside the province there are strong polarized feelings, but (the law) does not as yet represent real political trouble for Danielle Smith,” Kurl said.

Alberta has a testy relationship with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government in Ottawa due to perceptions that Liberal climate policies hurt the oil and gas sector.

CHALLENGING OTTAWA

The federal government has shown little inclination to get involved. Last week Trudeau said, though he would consider the implications of the law, he was not looking for a fight.

“It sends a signal to the investment community that the government of Alberta is picking instability over certainty at a time of global uncertainty,” said federal tourism minister Randy Boissonault, one of two Alberta Liberal lawmakers, told reporters on Thursday. “We’re not picking a fight here. What we want to do and what we will continue to do is defend the federation, defend the country.”

Industry associations including the Calgary Chamber of Commerce have warned the new law will deter investment and hurt Alberta’s economy. Indigenous groups in the province have outright rejected the act because they say it undermines the treaties they signed with Canada.

Still, the survey is good news for Smith ahead of the election, although polling also showed the NDP holds the advantage in the two largest cities, Calgary and Edmonton, which account for just over half the seats in the provincial assembly.

The UCP climbed significantly in polls this year as Smith replaced Jason Kenney as premier, gaining supporters from the right-wing Wildrose party. A united right in traditionally conservative Alberta would make it harder for Rachel Notley’s NDP to triumph in the next election, pollsters say.

In her first two months, Smith has also embarked on sweeping healthcare reforms and unveiled a C$2.8 billion ($2.1 billion)inflation relief package, moves welcomed by her base.

“Danielle Smith is setting our democracy on fire all so she can frame the next election as a fight with Ottawa,” said Gil McGowan, president of the Alberta Federation of Labour.

But the backlash to the act and questions over its constitutionality could erode Albertans’ trust in her leadership and distract from the rest of her agenda, said Lori Williams, a political science professor at Calgary’s Mount Royal University.

(Reporting by Nia Williams in British Columbia and Steve Scherer in Ottawa; Editing by Josie Kao)