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JP Morgan Sees OPEC Spare Capacity Falling Through 2022 – Oil Prices Rising Sharply


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These translations are done via Google Translate

January 12, 2022

JP Morgan on Wednesday said it expects Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ spare capacity to fall through 2022, driving a higher risk premium to oil prices.

JPM forecasts oil prices to rise as high as $125 a barrel this year and $150 a barrel in 2023. “We see growing market recognition of global underinvestment in supply,” the bank said.

Oil prices hit two-month highs on Wednesday on tight supply as crude inventories in the United States, the world’s top consumer, fell to their lowest since 2018. A weaker dollar and easing concerns about the Omicron coronavirus variant were also factors.

Assuming production at prevailing quotas, OPEC spare capacity will fall to 4% of total production capacity by fourth quarter 2022, from 13% in the third quarter 2021, the U.S. investment bank said in a note.

JPM said this comes at a critical point as other global producers falter. The combination of underinvestment within OPEC+ nations and post-pandemic rising oil demand could lead to a potential energy crisis.



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