By Lorcan Roche Kelly
Employers in the U.S. are expected to have added 160,000 positions in June, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists, with the unemployment rate projected to remain at 3.6% and wages to grow 3.2%. Should the report, which is published at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, stray too far from consensus it may cause a reassessment of the Federal Reserve’s rate path by investors. One thing to be aware of today is that trading desks may be short staffed given the holiday disruption so market activity may dissipate fairly quickly after publication.
Deutsche Bank AG’s job cuts in the U.S. could go far beyond the equities and interest-rate derivative trading teams already slated for reductions. Chief Executive Officer Christian Sewing’s restructuring plan, expected to be adopted over the weekend, will see as many as 20,000 job cuts worldwide and the withdrawal of the investment bank from large areas of the industry. With morale already at a low in the bank, many employees would probably rather just get the news over with at this stage.
The meeting between President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping at the G-20 might have been enough to pause the trade war, but it seems that finding a lasting peace is no easier than it was before the summit. China’s pre-condition is a removal of all tariffs placed on its goods, with state media saying talks will “go backward again” without the U.S. agreeing to that step. Trade spats are starting to spread beyond the U.S.-China faceoff, with the long-standing grudge match between Japan and South Korea among those that are beginning to re-emerge.
Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.1% while Japan’s Topix index closed 0.2% higher with electronics makers again leading the gains. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.4% lower at 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time as investors weighed disappointing economic data against more signs of central bank dovishness. S&P 500 futures pointed to a small drop at the open – ahead of jobs data – the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.965% and gold was broadly unchanged.
It’s not only jobs day in the U.S., with Canada’s June report also published at 8:30 a.m. with almost 10,000 positions expected to be added in the month. Beyond that, it is a quite day on the eco front. For anyone thinking of switching their phones off for the weekend, it might be worth checking in on how the Deutsche Bank’s supervisory board views Sewing’s turnaround plan, and Sunday’s Greek election, which might spell the end of the Tsipras-era in the country – something bond holders are unlikely to shed a tear over.