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Computer Modelling Group Announces Year End Results – Part 6


Sales Variability Risk

CMG's software license revenue consists of annuity/maintenance software licensing, which is generally for a term of one year or less, and perpetual software licensing, whereby the customer purchases the-then-current version of the software and has the right to use that version in perpetuity. Software licensing under perpetual sales is a significant part of CMG's business but is more variable in nature as the purchase decision, and its timing, fluctuate with customers' needs and budgets. CMG has found that a number of customers prefer to acquire perpetual software licenses rather than leasing the software on an annual basis. The experience over the last few years is that a number of these customers are purchasing additional licenses to allow more users to access CMG technology in their operations. CMG has found that a large percentage of its customers who have acquired perpetual software licenses are subsequently purchasing maintenance licenses to ensure they have access to current CMG technology.

The variability in sales of perpetual licenses may cause significant fluctuations in the Company's quarterly and annual financial results, and these results may not meet the expectations of analysts or investors. Accordingly, the Company's past results may not be a good indication of its future performance.

CMG's customers are both domestic and international oil and gas companies and for the years ended March 31, 2017 and 2016, no customer represented revenue in excess of 10% of total revenue.

Foreign Exchange Risk

CMG's reported results are affected by the exchange rate between the Canadian dollar and the US dollar as approximately 78% (2016 - 76%) of product revenues in fiscal 2017 were denominated in US dollars. Approximately 26% of CMG's total costs in fiscal 2017 (2016 - 28%) were denominated in US dollars, which provides a partial economic hedge against the fluctuation in currency exchange between the US and the Canadian dollar on revenues. CMG's residual revenues and costs are primarily denominated in Canadian dollars, and its policy is to convert excess US dollar cash into Canadian dollars when received.

Geopolitical Risk

CMG sells its products and services in approximately 60 countries and maintains offices in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, Colombia and Malaysia. Some of these countries have greater economic, political and social risks than North America. Some of those risks include:

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-- Costs associated with the use of foreign agents and contractors; -- Difficulties in collecting accounts receivable; -- Currency restrictions and exchange rate fluctuations; -- The burdens of complying with a wide variety of foreign laws; -- Changes in laws governing existing operations and contracts; -- Changes to taxation policies dramatically increasing tax costs to the

Company;
-- Possible social, labor, political, and economic instability;
-- Economic and legal sanctions;
-- Non-compliance with applicable anti-corruption and bribery laws.

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Any disruption in our ability to complete a sale cycle, including disruption of travel to customers' locations to provide training and support, and the cost of reorganizing daily activities of foreign operations, could have an adverse effect on CMG's business, financial condition and operational results. CMG mitigates the potential adverse effect on sales by invoicing for the full license term in advance for the majority of software license sales and by invoicing as frequently as the contract allows for consulting and contract research services. CMG consults with tax advisors on complex tax issues and engages professional tax firms to review its tax filings in foreign jurisdictions. CMG closely monitors the business and regulatory environments of the countries in which it conducts operations to minimize the potential impact on costs and operations.

Non-compliance with applicable anti-corruption and bribery laws could subject the Company to onerous penalties and the costs of prosecution. CMG has established business practices and internal controls to minimize the potential occurrence of any irregular payments. In addition, the Company has established well-defined anti-corruption and bribery policies and procedures that each employee and contractor is required to sign indicating their compliance.

Competition Risk

Competition is a risk for CMG as it is for almost every company in every sector. The reservoir simulation software industry currently consists of three major suppliers (including CMG) and a number of small suppliers. Some of the other suppliers, including two major suppliers, offer products or oil field services outside the scope of reservoir simulation. Some potential customers may prefer to deal with such multi-service suppliers, while others prefer an independent supplier, such as CMG.

Although competition is very active, CMG believes that its proven technology and the comprehensive scope of its products, combined with its international presence and recognition as a major independent supplier, provide distinct competitive advantages.

Sustaining competitive advantage is another issue, which CMG addresses by making a significant ongoing commitment to research and development spending. CMG expended $16.4 million (2016 - $16.9 million) in product research and development in its most recently completed fiscal year.

The introduction by competitors of products embodying new technology and the emergence of new industry standards and practices could render CMG's products obsolete and unmarketable and could exert price pressures on existing products, which could have negative effects on the Company's business, operating results and financial condition.

There is a significant barrier for new entrants into the reservoir simulation software industry. The cost of entry is substantial as a significant investment in research and development is required. In addition, to become a major supplier, a significant time investment is required to build up quality relationships with potential customers.

Labour Risk

The Company's continued success is substantially dependent on the performance of its key employees and officers. The loss of the services of these personnel as well as failure to attract additional key personnel could have a negative impact upon the Company's business, operating results and financial condition. Due to high levels of competition for qualified personnel, there can be no assurance that the Company will be successful in retaining and attracting such personnel. The Company attempts to overcome this by offering an attractive compensation package and providing an environment that provides the intellectual and professional stimulation sought by our employee group.

Intellectual Property Risk

CMG regards its software as proprietary and attempts to protect it with copyrights, trademarks and trade secret measures, including restrictions on disclosure and technical measures. Despite these precautions, it may be possible for third parties to copy CMG's programs or aspects of its trade secrets. CMG has no patents, and existing legal and technical precautions afford only limited practical protection. CMG could incur substantial costs in protecting and enforcing its intellectual property rights. Moreover, from time to time third parties may assert patent, trademark, copyright and other intellectual property rights to technologies that are important to CMG. In such an event, CMG may be required to incur significant costs in litigating a resolution to the asserted claim. There can be no assurance that such a resolution would not require that CMG pay damages or obtain a license of a third party's proprietary rights in order to continue licensing its products as currently offered, or, if such a license is required, that it will be available on terms acceptable to CMG.

CMG does not know of any infringement of any third party's patent rights, copyrights, trade secrecy rights or other intellectual property disputes in the development or support of its products.

Cyber Risk

CMG is dependent on information technology ("IT") infrastructure to process, transmit and store electronic information, to advertise, inform and train around CMG's products and services, to manage business operations and for the functioning and/or delivery of the Company's products and services. CMG's IT infrastructure is composed of hardware, software, networks, data center facilities, web servers, and all related equipment required to operate. Natural disasters, energy blackouts, operating malfunction, software virus or malware, cyber security attacks, human error, employee misconduct or other sources could result in the temporary or permanent loss of any or all parts of CMG's IT infrastructure. Any such incident or breach could create system disruptions or slowdowns. In such an event, the information stored in CMG's IT infrastructure could be accessed, publicly disclosed, lost, or stolen, which could subject CMG to liability and cause the Company to incur significant costs to eliminate or alleviate the problem. Additionally, such occurrences could cause negative publicity and harm to CMG's reputation. CMG mitigates such risks by ensuring the core network is not connected to the Internet, firewalling the servers that are connected to the Internet, restricting access to information through user authentication, completing frequent back-ups of data, and having a disaster recovery plan in place.

Although CMG has implemented disaster recovery plans and extensive technology security initiatives to prevent, detect and address these threats, it is virtually impossible to entirely mitigate these risks. To date, CMG has not experienced any material losses relating to cyber attacks or other information security breaches.

CMG's website collects limited user information; the website is not used for e-commerce transactions, and CMG neither receives nor retains financial information from its website users. CMG's products are not known to have any security vulnerabilities. CMG's products are engineering decision-making tools and are not employed in a cyber security (mitigation or defensive) role, as part of our client's IT infrastructure. CMG's software releases are scanned for software viruses and malware, confirming a lack thereof, prior to delivery to clients.

Tax Liability Risk

With operations and sales in various countries, CMG is subject to taxes in several jurisdictions around the world. Significant judgment is required in determining the Company's worldwide liability for income, indirect and other taxes, as well as potential penalties and interest. Although management believes that all expenses and tax credits claimed by the Company, including research and development expenses and foreign tax credits, are reasonable, deductible and have been correctly determined, tax authorities may disagree with the treatment of items reported by the Company, the result of which could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations. CMG mitigates these risks by staying informed of changes in tax legislation, consulting with tax advisors on complex tax issues and having professional tax firms review the Company's tax filings.

CMG conducts operations worldwide through subsidiaries in various tax jurisdictions pursuant to transfer pricing arrangements with its subsidiaries. If two or more affiliated companies are located in different countries, the tax laws or regulations of each country generally will require that transfer prices be the same as those between unrelated companies dealing at arm's length. While we believe that we operate in compliance with applicable transfer pricing laws and intend to continue to do so, a tax authority in one or more jurisdictions could challenge the validity of our related-party transfer pricing methodologies, which could result in adjustments in favor of the taxing authority. To address this risk, CMG engages local professional tax firms to review the Company's transfer pricing agreements and dealings with foreign tax authorities.

Disclosure Controls and Procedures and Internal Control over Financial Reporting

Management is responsible for establishing and maintaining disclosure controls and procedures ("DC&P") and internal control over financial reporting ("ICFR") as defined under National Instrument 52-109.

At March 31, 2017, the Chief Executive Officer ("CEO") and the Chief Financial Officer ("CFO") concluded that the design and operation of the Company's DC&P were effective (in accordance with the COSO control framework (2013)) and that material information relating to the Company, including its subsidiaries, was made known to them and was recorded, processed, summarized and reported within the time periods specified under applicable securities legislation. Further, the CEO and the CFO concluded that the design and operation of the Company's ICFR were effective at March 31, 2017 in order to provide reasonable assurance regarding the reliability of financial reporting and the preparation of financial statements for external purposes in accordance with IFRS. It should be noted that while the Company's CEO and CFO believe that the Company's disclosure controls and procedures and internal controls over financial reporting provide a reasonable level of assurance that they are effective, they do not expect that such controls and procedures will prevent all errors and fraud. A control system, no matter how well conceived or operated, can provide only reasonable, not absolute, assurance that the objectives of the control system are met.

During the year ended March 31, 2017, there have been no significant changes to the Company's ICFR that have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, the Company's ICFR.

Non-IFRS Financial Measures

This MD&A includes certain measures which have not been prepared in accordance with IFRS such as "EBITDA", "direct employee costs" and "other corporate costs." Since these measures do not have a standard meaning prescribed by IFRS, they are unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers. Management believes that these indicators nevertheless provide useful measures in evaluating the Company's performance.

"Direct employee costs" include salaries, bonuses, stock-based compensation, benefits, commission expenses, and professional development. "Other corporate costs" include facility-related expenses, corporate reporting, professional services, marketing and promotion, computer expenses, travel, and other office-related expenses. Direct employee costs and other corporate costs should not be considered an alternative to total operating expenses as determined in accordance with IFRS. People-related costs represent the Company's largest area of expenditure; hence, management considers highlighting separately corporate and people-related costs to be important in evaluating the quantitative impact of cost management of these two major expenditure pools. See "Expenses" heading for a reconciliation of direct employee costs and other corporate costs to total operating expenses.

"EBITDA" refers to net income before adjusting for depreciation expense, finance income, finance costs, and income and other taxes. EBITDA should not be construed as an alternative to net income as determined by IFRS. The Company believes that EBITDA is useful supplemental information as it provides an indication of the results generated by the Company's main business activities prior to consideration of how those activities are amortized, financed or taxed. See "EBITDA" heading for a reconciliation of EBITDA to net income.

Forward-looking Information

Certain information included in this MD&A is forward-looking. Forward-looking information includes statements that are not statements of historical fact and which address activities, events or developments that the Company expects or anticipates will or may occur in the future, including such things as investment objectives and strategy, the development plans and status of the Company's software development projects, the Company's intentions, results of operations, levels of activity, future capital and other expenditures (including the amount, nature and sources of funding thereof), business prospects and opportunities, research and development timetable, and future growth and performance. When used in this MD&A, statements to the effect that the Company or its management "believes", "expects", "expected", "plans", "may", "will", "projects", "anticipates", "estimates", "would", "could", "should", "endeavours", "seeks", "predicts" or "intends" or similar statements, including "potential", "opportunity", "target" or other variations thereof that are not statements of historical fact should be construed as forward-looking information. These statements reflect management's current beliefs with respect to future events and are based on information currently available to management of the Company. The Company believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking information are reasonable, but no assurance can be given that these expectations will prove to be correct and such forward-looking information should not be unduly relied upon.

With respect to forward-looking information contained in this MD&A, we have made assumptions regarding, among other things:



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