FORECAST: Goldman Sees 2026 Brent at $80-$90 Until US-Iran Deal or Major Escalation

(Reuters) – Goldman Sachs said on Tuesday it expects Brent crude to trade in an $80-$90 per barrel range until there is ​either confirmation of a new U.S.-Iran nuclear deal or a ‌significant escalation of their conflict.

The bank estimates spot Brent’s fair value at about $80 a barrel, suggesting markets are pricing in only a modest risk premium despite ongoing ​uncertainty over Middle East oil supplies.

Brent traded near $85 a barrel ​on Tuesday as conflicting signals from the U.S. and Iran over ⁠the status of talks to end their five-month-old war sowed uncertainty.

Although Brent ​retreated to the low-to-mid $80s after the U.S. delayed planned strikes on Iran ​and reports suggested progress in talks over managing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman said physical oil markets continue to tighten.

It estimated global visible oil inventories ​fell by 6.3 million barrels per day over the past two weeks, ​driven by reduced flows from the Gulf and Red Sea, lower Russian exports and ‌stronger ⁠Asian imports.

It estimates Gulf oil exports have fallen to about 36% of pre-war levels on a seven-day moving average basis, from nearly 80% in early July.

Goldman also said loaded tanker capacity in the Red Sea has ​dropped 22% since ​the Iran-aligned Houthis ⁠announced a blockade.

The bank estimates Saudi oil exports are down 2.4 million barrels per day from a year earlier, although ​shipments have increasingly been rerouted through Egypt’s SUMED pipeline, ​partly ⁠offsetting disruptions to Red Sea shipping routes.

Goldman also highlighted a recent drop in Russian crude supplies. Exports of Russian crude and condensate fell by 1.3 ⁠million ​bpd over the past two weeks, while ​recurring disruptions to loadings at the CPC terminal in the Black Sea have left shipments well ​below normal levels.

Reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru. Editing by Mark Potter

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