STUDY: PM Carney’s First Budget Outspends Trudeau’s Plan by $67.6 Billion Over Next Four Years; Runs Deficits Twice as Large

By Jake Fuss and Grady Munro

Comparing Federal Fiscal Plans: Is the Carney Government Truly Taking a Different Approach than Its Predecessor?

• During the 2025 election, the Carney government promised to take a different approach to federal finances than its predecessor. To determine whether or not the government truly plans to fulfill that promise, this analysis compares the fiscal plans presented in the 2024 Fall Economic Statement (the Trudeau government’s last fiscal release) and in Budget 2025 (the Carney government’s first fiscal release) based on overall revenues, spending, total deficits, and total debt accumulation.
• From 2024/25 to 2029/30, the Carney government projects total annual revenues will increase by 14.2% ($72.3 billion), whereas the Trudeau government had planned for a 19.9% ($101.8 billion) increase.
• Despite expecting slower revenue growth, the Carney government plans to spend a combined $67.6 billion more than the Trudeau government had planned from 2025/26 to 2029/30. This includes $47.8 billion in additional program spending and an additional $19.8 billion to service government debt.
• As a result, the Carney government plans to run combined deficits of $321.7 billion over this same period. That is more than double what the Trudeau government had planned ($154.4 billion).
• By 2029/30, the Carney government projects that the total federal debt will reach $2.9 trillion (79.0% of GDP), whereas the Trudeau government had only planned to reach $2.6 trillion ($266.4 billion less and only 71.7% of GDP).
• Rather than take a new approach, this analysis reveals the Carney government will instead continue, and exacerbate, the same fiscal policies as the Trudeau government.

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