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Global energy expert Robert Johnston discusses the end of American normalcy and why Canada must leverage its resources to secure global stability
By Ian Biana
Robert Johnston on the new energy superpower era.
By Resource Works
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Robert “RJ” Johnston has spent his career at the intersection of global energy, geopolitics, and public policy. After 25 years in Washington and New York, the former Eurasia Group CEO returned home. He now serves as the director of energy and natural resources policy at the University of Calgary. He finds a country at a critical turning point.
Global energy security and climate policy are now deeply intertwined. Canada recently completed major projects like the Trans Mountain expansion and LNG Canada. These assets provide the country with new diplomatic and economic clout. Johnston believes Canada is finally demonstrating its potential to help a world in crisis.
The end of normal in the United States
Many people ask Johnston if the world will ever return to a state of normalcy. He suggests some things might re-normalize, like the tone of diplomatic conversations. However, the fundamental desires of the United States have shifted permanently. American leaders now prefer a more managed trade approach. They are no longer as committed to full globalization as in the past.
This shift creates a world of continued instability. Conflicts in Ukraine, Taiwan, and the Persian Gulf keep the energy markets on edge. Johnston argues that Canada must diversify its markets to remain resilient. We can no longer rely solely on a traditional relationship with our southern neighbour.
The U.S. is currently the world’s largest oil exporter. This dominance relies on shale assets with a finite lifespan. Some analysts believe other global powers are simply waiting for U.S. shale to peak. If production eventually drops by 20 per cent or 40 per cent, Canada must be ready. Our oil sands offer a more reliable, long-term resource for the world.
Canada as a middle power wedge
Prime Minister Mark Carney is leaning into a new role as a global traveler. These “Team Canada” missions now place energy and resources at the very centre. Countries like South Korea, Indonesia, and India are desperate for secure energy. Johnston sees energy as the “wedge” that opens doors for broader trade and investment.
This strategy is not just about exporting commodities. Canada needs the massive capital pools found in the Middle East and Asia. We need this investment to build smelters, nuclear reactors, and export infrastructure. A balance of trade and investment will secure our future.
Johnston notes that Carney’s messaging on “middle power” cooperation is finding an audience. Western Europe and Japan are often frustrated with shifting American policies. They are hungry for rules-based, multilateral trade. Canada can lead this group of nations to ensure global stability.
The strategic weight of copper and AI
Energy historians now see copper emerging with the strategic weight of oil. The rise of artificial intelligence and electrification is driving unprecedented demand. Johnston is cautious about some of the more extreme AI growth stories. However, the demand for the grid and data centres is undeniably real.
Unlike natural gas, copper faces severe physical supply constraints. Ore grades are deteriorating and production costs are climbing. Canada has many copper projects on its major projects list. We must shorten the long timelines between exploration and actual production.
The next generation of students is focused on the “age of electricity”. They are interested in supply chains, decarbonization, and electricity markets. This shift reflects a broader change in how we view energy. We are moving toward a future where diverse energy sources define national power.
Avoiding the trap of prediction
In the past, some leaders predicted the world would be off oil by 2030. Johnston believes it is a mistake for governments to predict the future. They should not claim we are getting off oil entirely. They also should not assume unconstrained growth forever.
Instead, the government should create the right conditions for private risk-taking. Companies and investors should decide which projects make economic sense. They are the ones who can best calculate supply and demand. The state’s role is to enable this process, not to dictate it.
The markets for oil and gas are currently tightening globally. Canada has a chance to find individual customers for its specific products. We must focus on making the economics work at the project level. If we do this, Canada will finally reach its full potential.
Watch the video on Power Struggle
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Ian Biana writes for the Resource Works Accelerate team and can be reached at [email protected].
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