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By Annika Segelhorst and Elmira Aliakbari
The new trade deal between Canada and China, which reduces the tariff rate on Chinese electric vehicle (EV) imports into Canada, recently made headlines. But Canada faces a dilemma. Federal EV mandates require more vehicles to plug in, but our electricity grids are not equipped to handle the related surge in electricity demand. And because expanding power infrastructure takes decades, there’s growing doubt about the feasibility of meeting EV adoption targets.
Since 2023, the federal government has introduced policies to force a shift towards EVs as one element of its “net-zero” emissions by 2050 plan. A key part of the transition is the federal mandate that 23 per cent of new automobile sales in 2027 be non-emitting, rising to 100 per cent by 2035. This is still the goal though the Carney government has paused the timeline for one year and begun a review.
One recent study estimated that Canada would have to add 15.3 per cent to its electricity production and/or importing capacities to meet the increased demand from the federal EV mandate by 2035.
Looking further ahead, according to the Canada Energy Regulator, a federal agency, by 2050 national electricity demand will grow by a projected 135 per cent. This means that in the span of about 25 years, Canada’s electricity demand would more than double to meet EV mandates and other policies that shift energy use from fossil fuels towards electricity. Successfully delivering such a massive increase in electricity would require a monumental expansion in our infrastructure for electricity generation, transmission and storage, and points to increased reliance on energy imports from the United States if demand for power grows faster than domestic supply.
In line with net-zero targets, the federal government requires that future electricity demand be met using only low- or zero-carbon sources. Canada’s electricity grid is already among the cleanest in the world. According to Natural Resources Canada, 82.5 per cent of electricity comes from non-emitting sources, primarily hydropower and nuclear. To simultaneously expand our electricity grid while also ensuring low or even zero emissions would require building electricity infrastructure at a scale not seen before in Canada.
And the reality is that bringing new electricity infrastructure online is a complicated and time-consuming process, often marked by delays, regulatory challenges and significant cost overruns. One example is British Columbia’s Site C, a hydroelectricity project that will expand that province’s electricity generation by 8 per cent. Site C officially entered service in 2025, about 10 years after construction began and more than five decades after the initial planning studies in 1971 and a price tag of roughly $16 billion, almost double the original 2014 budget of $8.8 billion.
In Ontario, it took almost two decades for Bruce Nuclear to be fully operational. The Muskrat Falls hydroelectric facility in Labrador started the approval process in 2006, began construction in 2013 but did not transmit power until 2023, costing almost twice its original price tag. These cases highlight how long it takes for regulatory approvals, permitting and construction, as well as the substantial costs.
According to a study that evaluated the scale of build-out required to meet forecasted electricity demand for 2050—not just to accommodate EVs, but to meet overall projected demand—using only low- or no-carbon generating technologies, Canada would need either the equivalent of 134 Site Cs or 16 nuclear plants the size of Ontario’s Bruce Power facility.
Taken together, there’s a self-evident and fundamental challenge—the federal EV mandate strives for rapid acceleration of EV adoption and will lead to a significant increase in electricity, but expanding the supply of electricity has historically proven slow and expensive. Any changes to Ottawa’s EV mandate must confront this disconnect and its consequences for electricity demand.
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