S&P Global Revises Oilsands Outlook Upward Despite Crude Market Volatility

CALGARY – S&P Global Commodity Insights says oilsands output is forecast to rise by half a million barrels from last year’s levels by the end of the decade.

That would mark a three per cent increase from S&P’s previous 10-year outlook for the sector and would be the fourth upward revision in a row.

Chief Canadian oil analyst Kevin Birn says the change in trajectory, even during volatile times, reflects how producers are working to improve efficiency from existing operations.

Oilsands production is expected to hit a record 3.5 million barrels per day this year — five per cent higher than last year.

S&P forecasts output will exceed 3.9 million barrels per day by 2030, but plateau around 3.7 million barrels in 2035.

Director of crude oil markets Celina Hwang says the outlook could be dampened by export pipeline constraints, but oilsands operators have proven they can withstand such volatility.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 24, 2025.

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