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By Jim Warren
Central Canada’s chattering classes are talking about the likelihood of an early federal election call–coming as soon as this spring. Liberal cheerleaders in the legacy media claim the prime minister needs the stability of a majority, to support his efforts to defend Canada from the ravages of US tariffs and bullying.
Given the Carney Liberals’ weak performance to date it’s clear they need something. The government’s critics think what they need is a lengthy stint as an opposition party. Obviously that option is unacceptable to the Carney fan base. How else can they possibly launch the New World Order without the certainty of a Liberal majority?
Geopolitical volatility feeds uncertainty, making planning especially challenging for commodity producers reliant on exports and prices set in global markets. This applies whether they export petroleum or canola. No less annoying is the lack of certainty about the prospects for building one or more oil pipelines, connecting Alberta oil to one or more of Canada’s coasts. Of course, supporters of Canada’s conventional energy industries have long recognized the need to diversify their export options to maximize crude oil revenues—a task made more urgent by a trade war.
Making matters worse is the annoying failure of Canada’s prime minister to offer full-throated support for a pipeline to tidewater. The flurry of commentaries in Western Canada’s energy media over the past few weeks attests to the mounting skepticism about the real value of the Alberta-Ottawa pipeline MOU.
Thus far, the Carney government has agreed only to allow a pipeline to go forward if its proponents meet conditions that make building a financially viable project a virtual impossibility. Yet, the prime minister’s true intentions remain a mystery. He claims he supports the pipeline but also insists that the excessively onerous conditions be met. It is a glaring contradiction; both things cannot be possible at the same time.
It would be helpful to know whether Mark Carney’s political decisions are driven by the values he attests to in his book and the environmental purity he wears on his sleeve when addressing admirers at Davos. On the other hand, Carney’s supporters claim it’s his business acumen and macroeconomic credentials that make him the ideal prime minister. If that is really the case, you’d think the economist side of his brain would convince him to put the climate crusade on the back burner in the interest of resuscitating the Canadian economy.
There is a stream of thought which contends it will take an early election call in 2026 followed by a Liberal majority win before the real Mark Carney puts in an official appearance. At last count the Carney Liberals are three seats shy of a majority government. Proponents of the “it will take a majority win before we know where he stands” theory, argue the prime minister’s failure to divulge his real position on pipelines has two principal causes:
1) The prime minister is afraid to provide stronger support for the petroleum sector because to do so would threaten to reduce his already slim majority. This proposition assumes there are members of the Liberal caucus who would resign or sit as Independents if the government strays too far from environmental orthodoxy and weakens its efforts to fight climate change. Of course this assumes the desire to embrace trees supersedes more traditional Liberal motivations such as toeing the party line whatever it might be to remain eligible for a cabinet post, a fatter pension and a cushy patronage appointment following retirement from parliament.
2) Liberal claims about being the best party to govern Canada rest on a promise to employ a united Team Canada approach to dealing with big international problems like the Trump tariffs. This makes it difficult for the prime minster to go into an early election while further alienating already angry Albertans and the majority of Canadians who support the building of more export pipelines. Carney may indeed still harbor ambitions about making Canada a world leader in the campaign for net zero. He may be hoping to strengthen the EV mandates and further increase carbon taxes. He just doesn’t want to show his hand and stir up further opposition until after he has secured a safe majority.
Discovering who the real Mark Carney is would answer an important question for supporters of natural gas and petroleum. But hoping he wins a majority just so we can find out what he really thinks defies logic and common sense. If he wins a majority and we discover his mission in life is to save the planet from fossil fuel emissions, we’re stuck with him for the next four to five years. If the Liberals only succeed in remaining in a minority position after an early election we may be no better or worse off than we are now.
On the other hand, if the stars actually aligned in favour of the conventional energy sector, the election of a minority or majority Conservative government is a preferable outcome. Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives have been consistently strong supporters of growing Canada’s oil and gas production and exports. That should make a Conservative majority win the most desirable early election reult. A minority win for the Conservatives would be less attractive, limiting what they can do for oil and gas. Their success would depend on how the seats in a minority parliament are distributed and what sorts of bargains can be made. That said, given recent poles, it’s become apparent that Canada has been dealt a hand with Mark Carney and his back room band of Trudeau era, anti-pipeline supporters for a while yet.
Perhaps the best idea is to forget about guessing what Carney really thinks and pay more attention to assessing what he has actually done. Just look at his government’s record. By almost any measure it is clear he hasn’t earned a majority.
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