Next Ontario Government Should Beat Trump at His Own Game

Premier Doug Ford, who will trigger an election this week, recently said he plans to “spend billions of dollars” to stimulate Ontario’s economy if President Donald Trump makes good on his threat to slap a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian exports into the United States.

But rather than piling on even more spending, the next Ontario government—whoever that may be—should enact policies that finally get provincial finances back in order and make Ontario an attractive place to work and invest.

Relief can’t come soon enough. The Ford government has woefully mismanaged provincial finances. When first elected in 2018, Premier Ford promised to balance the budget and reduce government debt—something Ford’s former finance minister Vic Fedeli described as a “moral” imperative. Yet since then, the government has run deficits in five of six years and its net debt burden has increased by an estimated $70.3 billion.

As a result, in 2023 Ontario had the second-highest debt burden of any province (only Newfoundland and Labrador had a larger burden) when measured on a per-person basis.

Based on the Ford government’s latest fiscal update, the reckless mismanagement has continued into this fiscal year (2024/25). Despite enjoying lower-than-expected debt interest costs and higher-than-expected revenues—which combined could have nearly eliminated the budget deficit—the Ford government instead chose to again increase spending and keep running deficits.

Why should Ontarians care?

Because the Ford government’s penchant for spending and borrowing is hurting Ontario’s economy. When the government runs a deficit and accumulates more debt, it competes with individuals, households and businesses for borrowing. This drives up interest rates (i.e. the cost of borrowing) for everyone, which can reduce the level of investment in the economy. Moreover, because rising debt and higher interest rates equal higher interest payments, the government faces pressure to raise taxes. And the brunt of the new tax burden will fall on younger generations of Ontarians.

Also this week, Premier Ford said President Trump “wants to attract businesses from Ontario to come down to the United States,” which will eliminate jobs in the province.

And Ford’s right. When policymakers create the conditions to attract people and investment, their economies grow and people prosper.

If the Ontario government wants to beat Trump at his own game, it should lower personal income taxes and make the province a more attractive destination for high-skilled workers such as engineers and entrepreneurs who contribute greatly to the economy and create jobs. Lower taxes also improve the incentive for individuals to engage in productive activities such as working, saving and investing. In 2023, Ontario had the third-highest top combined (provincial and federal) personal income tax rate in Canada and the U.S.

The government should also lower business taxes to make Ontario more competitive with the U.S. in attracting businesses and investment—the pillars of job-creation and prosperity.

Regardless of who wins the election, the next Ontario government should finally restore some semblance of fiscal responsibility and balance the budget. And it should lower taxes for workers and businesses to help create prosperity across the province. That’s a much more sensible and sustainable way to counter threats from Trump (or anyone else) than spending billions of dollars borrowed on the backs of Ontarians.