“Sending an Aframax directly to China is costly, but so are multiple reverse lighterings onto a VLCC off California,” Matt Smith, head analyst at Kpler, said by email. “It seems more likely that direct Aframaxes to Asia will win out because China will take more of the volume.” Using VLCCs for shipments to India is more probable, but India has become increasingly reliant on Russian crude, reducing imports of Canadian oil from the U.S. Gulf.Another advantage of transferring the oil onto VLCCs is that shippers can simultaneously send other grades of crude from other regions of Americas. For example, the Eagle Varona, which left for China earlier this month, is carrying two Canadian crude grades, Cold Lake and Access Western Blend, plus Castilla crude from Colombia, according to Vortexa.
A record 7 million barrels-plus of oil, mostly Cold Lake, have been shipped off Vancouver this month, the first full month of operations for the 890,000 barrel-a-day Trans Mountain system. The US West Coast, particularly Los Angeles, has been the biggest recipient so far in June with 3.9 million barrels, followed by China, India and Ecuador, according to Vortexa data.
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