Oil prices have the potential to rally to $100 a barrel by the end of the Northern Hemisphere’s summer, but there’s a lot that could send that forecast awry.

Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. have laid out a scenario that sees Brent crude pushing triple digits by September, which would be the first time in two years.

The catalyst is a decision by Moscow to cut production further in the coming quarter.

That move, announced as part of a coordinated extension of output curbs by a group of OPEC+ members this month, would take Russia’s quota below 9 million barrels a day by June, bringing it back in line with Saudi Arabia’s target.

Oil’s gains, the analysts say, may be amplified by the possibility that OPEC+ producers decide when they meet in June to prolong cuts for the rest of the year. They see an extension as a 50-50 bet.

That would be enough to tip the market into a supply deficit for the whole year, according to an International Energy Agency forecast.

Yet even if the cutbacks are extended, a price rally isn’t a foregone conclusion.

US gasoline prices are rising and may hit $4 a gallon by May. That might be enough to trim demand growth or trigger another release of crude from the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

There’s still plenty in the storage caverns to make that possible.

Then there’s demand. The IEA raised its 2024 forecast by 200,000 barrels a day this month. But growth is still seen at little more than half what it was last year. High borrowing costs and dollar strength may yet cause severe disruptions to global consumption.

As for Russia itself, Moscow doesn’t have the best record in meeting output promises.

In January, it almost achieved its target for voluntary cuts for the first time since pledging the curbs last year. But production rose again last month.

Triple-digit oil prices may be crossing the minds of analysts once more, but the road to get there is still strewn with obstacles.

–Julian Lee, Bloomberg News