Weakness in the dollar has also been aiding oil in recent weeks and there could be further currency-related gains if stimulus negotiations in the U.S. — which remain deadlocked — bear fruit.

Crude has been largely stuck in a range since early June and has struggled to break far beyond $45 in London. With OPEC+ returning barrels and uncertainty over the path of demand recovery in the coming months as the coronavirus continues to spread, trading volumes have largely dried up in recent weeks.

“A deal on the support package is not a foregone conclusion but if a mutually acceptable accord is struck, stocks and oil will get a short-term boost,” said PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga. “A close eye needs to be kept on the dollar.”

Analysts are forecasting a third straight drop in American crude stockpiles, when government data is released Wednesday. The coming days will also see the release of monthly reports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Administration, giving clues about the relative health of supply and demand over the second half of the year.