By Alex Longley and Ann Koh

Aug 25, 2020

(Bloomberg) Oil gained toward $43 a barrel as Laura was predicted to become a major hurricane, menacing crude production and refineries in the U.S. Gulf.Futures in New York edged higher, though gains were outpaced by the global Brent benchmark. Tropical Storm Laura is expected to make landfall on Thursday as a Category 3 hurricane with winds as strong as 115 miles per hour. Some 82% of oil output in the Gulf has been halted as operators braced for the weather systems to hit.

Refinery closures from companies including Motiva Enterprises LLC and Valero Energy Corp. could shut in more than 1 million barrels a day of processing capacity before the storm threat passes. U.S. gasoline futures rose to the highest since before the pandemic on concern over possible shortages.

Futures rise to highest since March as storm threat hits Gulf refineries

The predicted hurricane could have ramifications for global energy flows — diverting gasoline from Europe to the U.S. for example — and has translated into higher premiums for crudes from the affected region. The impacts are likely to be fleeting, however, with the coronavirus and the pace of global oil production restarts remaining the key price drivers for the foreseeable future.

“Gasoline has moved higher in response to more than 1 million barrels a day potentially being shut in,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank A/S. “Further upside may be tricky to achieve. Crude oil is still looking for a pulse having traded within a $1 range yesterday.”

Key price moves:
West Texas Intermediate for October rose 0.5% to $42.82 a barrel, while Brent for October settlement added 1% to $45.59 The U.S. benchmark’s discount to Brent grew by the most since July 30 on Monday and widened further Tuesday Nymex gasoline futures added 1.6% to 138.9 cents a gallon

As the storms menace fuel supplies in the Gulf Coast, the structure of the U.S. gasoline market has changed. Nymex gasoline futures for September are trading at their biggest premium to those for October since March, a sign that traders expect supplies to be scarcer than previously thought.

There are also signs that crudes outside of the U.S. are rallying in sympathy with American grades, amid the potential for disruption to U.S. crude exports. Key contracts known as swaps in the North Sea market, which prices much of the world’s crude, rallied to their strongest level since mid-July on Tuesday, according to brokerage Eagle Commodities Ltd.