Inflation muted, April consumer prices up just 0.2 per cent

WASHINGTON — U.S. consumer prices rose a modest 0.2 per cent in April, lifted by higher gas costs, a sign that broader inflation pressures remain muted.

The consumer price index increased 2.5 per cent in April from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Thursday, the biggest annual gain in 14 months. Yet excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core prices ticked up just 0.1 per cent in April and 2.1 per cent from a year earlier.

Inflation has increased steadily since last summer, when it rose just 1.6 per cent in June from a year earlier. But core prices have risen more slowly.

Slower growth in core prices may mean that the Federal Reserve will be less inclined to accelerate interest rate hikes. The Fed has signalled they will lift rates twice more this year. Some expect that an uptick in inflation or economic growth might spur the Fed to add a third hike.

"After running hotter this year, underlying inflation simmered down in April," said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. "This will take some pressure off the Fed from stepping up the pace of tightening, but it should not affect the already-high odds of a June rate hike."

Still, higher gas prices are being felt by a lot of people, and that may weigh on spending elsewhere in the months ahead. It could be enough to offset some of the benefits from the Trump administration's tax cuts.

At the same time, businesses are paying higher costs for shipping and materials that face import tariffs, such as aluminum and steel.

Gas prices averaged $2.84 a gallon nationwide Thursday, up from $2.66 a month ago, and just $2.34 a year ago.

Oil prices have jumped 40 per cent since the end of 2016, driven higher by the expectation that the Trump administration would re-impose sanctions on Iran, the world's fifth-largest oil producer. That decision arrived this week. Oil output from Venezuela has also fallen. Crude oil topped $71 a barrel Thursday, a price not seen since late 2014.

The Fed monitors a separate inflation gauge, which rose 1.9 per cent in March from a year earlier, nearly matching the Fed's target of 2 per cent.

Inflation fears on Wall Street have intensified in recent months with the unemployment rate sinking to a 17-year low of 3.9 per cent. And there are some signs that Americans are taking home bigger paychecks. Typically, low unemployment forces companies to pay workers more. Businesses may then increase prices to offset their own rising costs.

But there are plenty of economists who remain skeptical that inflation will accelerate, even in the current job-rich environment. So far, wages aren't rising in tandem with the healthy economy as they have in the past. And even when wages did rise faster, in the late 1990s, inflation topped 3 per cent but didn't get out of hand.

Housing and medical costs are also rising. Rents have jumped 3.7 per cent from last year. And medical services rose 2.2 per cent from a year ago.

Economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch note that the increases aren't yet broadly distributed throughout the economy. The cost of new cars and trucks has fallen 1.6 per cent from a year ago, and clothing costs are up just 0.8 per cent.

In April, used car prices dropped 1.6 per cent, the largest monthly decline since March 2009.

Cable TV prices fell 0.5 per cent in April, the biggest drop in more than seven years, as more Americans opt for streaming video services instead.

"Having been a one-way upward bet for decades, cable TV providers are finally being exposed to market forces. Good," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, a forecasting firm.

Food prices have also been flat, rising just 1.4 per cent in the past 12 months. Mobile phone service prices fell 0.7 per cent in the past year, as unlimited data plans have spread.

Christopher Rugaber, The Associated Press